Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
853 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 853 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY PARALLELING I-55 AT THIS HOUR...WITH
A SECOND BATCH ACROSS CHAMPAIGN AND VERMILION COUNTIES BUT
WEAKENING. THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ALTHOUGH THE LINE SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA...AS SHORTWAVE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY PUSHES
NORTHEAST TOWARD INDIANA.

UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO BE OUT AROUND 9 PM.

GEELHART

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 605 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE COVERAGE OF TSRA TNT ACRS
THE FCST AREA...AND THEN CIGS DURING THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. SFC MAP
HAS A WEAK SFC TROF OVR EAST CENTRAL IOWA THRU ERN MO. SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS BRINGING IN A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR A WHILE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL ADD A TEMPO GROUP BASED ON THE INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM JUST SOUTHWEST OF PIA AND SPI. SCT-BKN CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FROM 3500-4500 FEET...EXCPT
IN AND CLOSE TO ANY CONVECTION WHERE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. RAIN THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST BY 06Z
FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MON
WL CONTINUE FROM PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH THE CIGS BUT A LITTLE LATER
THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.

ANY MVFR CIGS/VCSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STORM
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING
WHICH WILL BRING OUR AREA STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH THE THREAT FOR TSRA AFTR 06Z TUE.

SMITH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF A
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER WRN IA. UPSTREAM FROM IL...AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE NOW COMING INTO SWRN MO/WRN AR WILL MOVE NE AND PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONVECTION OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SPECIAL 18Z LINCOLN SOUNDING SHOWS A CAP BETWEEN 800
AND 850 MB...WHICH IS PROVIDING ABOUT -35 J/KG OF INHIBITION FOR A
SURFACE-BASED PARCEL. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE UPPER SUPPORT
FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP AND ALLOW
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. WILL AWAIT LAST MINUTE RADAR TRENDS TO
FINALIZE EVENING POPS...BUT AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL
BE ON A SCATTERED BASIS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND THEN MAINLY IN THE
EAST. THIS IS ALSO WHAT THE SMALL-SCALE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
SUGGEST...WITH SOME UNFOCUSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN
AND EVE DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY. SOME SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS...WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. BOTH NAM AND GFS GRIDS
SHOW THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MON.

AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET MON...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
OVER THE ROCKIES AS A STRONG JET MOVES INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
QUICKLY...WITH A DEEP 980 LOW OVER SRN MN BY 06Z TUE AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS IA AND MO. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY MON EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDES STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. SOME SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE MODE BEING A
STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT WITH SOME WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL. EVEN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME STRONG BOTH AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...EXPECT WESTERLY
WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL WITHIN WIND ADVISORY RANGE...WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA MORE LIKELY OVER NRN IL. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE WIND
EVENT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUE AND MOST OF WED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BY 12Z THU...THE INTENSE DEEP LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND PULLING NEWD OUT OF THE AREA. RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST...WITH THE ATTENDING SURFACE HIGH NEAR IL BY 12Z FRI. THIS
WILL MAKE THU NGT/FRI MORN THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
30S AREA-WIDE. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH WARM ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN TAKING OVER
NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER A COOL START FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S SAT AND SUN.

THE DEEP CYCLONE OF TUE THRU THU WILL HAVE PUSHED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WELL S OF THE AREA...AND SOME TIME WILL BE REQUIRED TO GET ENOUGH
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST FOR PRECIPITATION. THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY OCCUR NEXT SUN. HOWEVER...WITH THE
UPPER PATTERN BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FAST-MOVING
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY...TIMING THAT FAR
AHEAD OF TIME IS DIFFICULT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER.

04

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
337 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

ILZ027>030-036-040-251100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-
337 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE
GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO
STABLE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MID
TO LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL
BE COMMON...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ031-037-038-041>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-251100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCOTT-
SHELBY-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
337 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW
OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL
BE COMMON...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH 10 PM.

BARNES

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
643 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             EAST PEORIA             40.67N 89.55W
10/24/2010  M0.25 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE STUDIOS OF WEEK/WHOI IN
            EAST PEORIA.

&&

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
741 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

ILZ048-051-250130-
MENARD-SANGAMON-
741 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN MENARD AND NORTHWESTERN
SANGAMON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 737 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW BERLIN...OR 14 MILES
EAST OF JACKSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PLEASANT PLAINS...
  ATHENS...
  SHERMAN...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BERLIN...FARMINGDALE...
SALISBURY...CAPITAL AIRPORT...CANTRALL AND FANCY PRAIRIE.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4012 8973 3987 8949 3972 8998 3987 8999
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 236DEG 29KT 3981 8995

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
802 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             PEKIN                   40.57N 89.63W
10/24/2010  M0.25 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

ILZ042-051>053-250245-
CHRISTIAN-LOGAN-MACON-SANGAMON-
849 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN SANGAMON...NORTHERN
CHRISTIAN...SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN AND WESTERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 945
PM CDT...

AT 845 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHATHAM...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF SPRINGFIELD...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ROCHESTER...
  RIVERTON...
  EDINBURG...
  MECHANICSBURG...
  MOUNT AUBURN...
  ILLIOPOLIS...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...JEROME...LELAND GROVE...SOUTHERN
VIEW...CLEAR LAKE...BERRY AND DAWSON.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4008 8917 3966 8915 3959 8974 3979 8978
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 247DEG 30KT 3971 8963

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
901 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             PEKIN                   40.57N 89.63W
10/24/2010  M0.25 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRINGFIELD             39.78N 89.64W
10/24/2010                   SANGAMON           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN TOWARD THE
            CENTER OF SPRINGFIELD.

&&

JP