Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. THEN NEXT CONCERN
IS CHANCES OF PCPN FOR NEXT WEEK AND TEMPS.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING FRONT THROUGH CWA
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRSS BRINGING IN DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO OF BLEND OF
THE SHORT TERM MODELS LOOKS GOOD THIS PACKAGE. IN THE LONG
TERM...MODELS AGREE THAT A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN
STORE FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE CWA/STATE AND APPEARS TO STILL BE
IN EASTERN IOWA AT 19Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...REACHING INTO INDIANA BY 06Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SFC
DEWPOINTS STILL ARE AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S. SO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA. SO WILL KEEP
A LIKELY POP IN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH IT TO
CHC IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRSS WILL BUILD INTO
THE CWA FOR INTO THE WEEKEND. THROUGH THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE A TAD GUSTY
TOMORROW AS A SECONDARY TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE GRT LKS REGION
AND THE HI PRSS RIDGE SITS OVER THE PLAINS. GRADIENT WILL THEN
DIMINISH FOR SAT AND SUN AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN
CENTRAL IL.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD AND GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE HI PRSS WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
NEXT TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO THE EAST OF THE STATES AS WELL. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE
PLAINS...BRINGING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE CWA FOR TUE NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TUE NIGHT AND WED LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THE CWA AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STAYS ACRS THE NORTHERN
US. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO WASH OUT OF THE STATE THEN AND THEN
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THUR...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE AREA.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS TO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK AND MEX GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS.

AUTEN
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1251 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LATEST OBS SHOWING SCT-BKN CU AT AROUND 2500FT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY EARLIER CONVECTION...SO HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD
AND WILL CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 03Z AT KPIA AND
06Z AT KCMI. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS UNTIL FROPA. AFTER
THAT...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SWITCH
AROUND TO THE WEST. GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING GUSTS UP TO 25KT AT
TIMES. IN ADDITION...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW SCT CU TO DEVELOP
AFTER 15Z.

BARNES
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
348 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-031100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
348 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-031100-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
348 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH AREAS FURTHER WEST SEEING THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1047 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ARTHUR                  39.72N 88.47W
09/02/2010  M1.68 INCH       DOUGLAS            IL   MESONET

            24 HOUR RAINFALL...COCORAHS

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ATWOOD                  39.80N 88.47W
09/02/2010  M1.56 INCH       PIATT              IL   MESONET

            24 HOUR RAINFALL...COCORAHS

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE MAHOMET            40.22N 88.36W
09/02/2010  M1.80 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   MESONET

            24 HOUR RAINFALL...COCORAHS

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NNE PANA              39.47N 89.04W
09/02/2010  M1.94 INCH       CHRISTIAN          IL   MESONET

            24 HOUR RAINFALL...COCORAHS

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       TUSCOLA                 39.80N 88.28W
09/02/2010  M1.50 INCH       DOUGLAS            IL   MESONET

            24 HOUR RAINFALL...COCORAHS

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE TUSCOLA           39.81N 88.27W
09/02/2010  M1.61 INCH       DOUGLAS            IL   MESONET

            24 HOUR RAINFALL...COCORAHS

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE WHITE HEATH       40.14N 88.47W
09/02/2010  M1.77 INCH       PIATT              IL   MESONET

            24 HOUR RAINFALL...COCORAHS

&&

DPK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
259 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

ILZ047-050-022100-
CASS-MORGAN-
259 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CASS AND NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 257 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF MEREDOSIA...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BEARDSTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ARENZVILLE...
  BLUFF SPRINGS...
  VIRGINIA...
  LITERBERRY...
  CHANDLERVILLE...
  ASHLAND...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...PHILADELPHIA AND NEWMANSVILLE.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3991 9056 3993 9054 3995 9054 3998 9053
      4010 9001 3983 9001 3984 9057
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 259DEG 20KT 3991 9051

BARNES

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