Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
615 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

MODELS VERY SIMILAR WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTER BUT DIFFER WITH SFC
FEATURES AND PCPN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO
THE 4KM WRF AND NAM12 SO WILL PROBABLY STICK CLOSE TO THAT AGAIN FOR
THE FIRST 12-24HRS. MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE PCPN
CHANCES THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW OVER THE CWA...AND HOW COOL TEMPS
WILL GET BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

EXTENDED MODELS HAVE SOME AGREEMENT FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT DIFFER
ON HANDLING OF REMNANTS OF ALEX IN THE LATER PERIODS. GFS APPEARS TO
BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL FOLLOW ECMWF FOR NOW AND SEE HOW ALEX EVOLVES
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LONG TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPS AND ANY CHANCES
OF PCPN FOR NEXT SUNDAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION PUSHED THROUGH AND
OVERTURNED THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH THAT SPECIAL 18Z UA FLIGHT
INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CAP OVER CNTRL IL THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DATA
SEEMS TO INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL OVER CENTRAL IL AT THE
MOMENT AND SPC MESOANALYSIS AND OTHER SFC PARAMETER INDICATES THERE
IS SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SOMEWHERE NEAR I-72 AT THE MOMENT.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST CAPPING IS LOCATED AT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN FRONT APPEARS TO STILL BE BACK WEST OF THE AREA
IN IOWA/MO. CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT CONVECTION
IS BEGINNING TO FIRE ON THE FRONT IN NRN MO WHERE CAPES HAVE
INCREASED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THERE IS NOT CAP. 4KM WRF
MODEL SHOWS THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BRINGS IT EAST
INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...WRF MODEL SHOWS MORE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING ALONG ANOTHER BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN IL
JUST SOUTH OF I-70. SO WITH FRONT STILL WEST...CAPE RETURNING IN
AREAS WEST...AND STORMS FIRING IN NRN MO...WILL KEEP POPS GOING FOR
THE WHOLE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE CHC IN THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR OVERNIGHT...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH POPS
EAST AND SOUTHEAST BUT STILL HANGING ON TO LIKELY'S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. WILL ALSO DIMINISH POPS TO NONE IN THE NORTHWEST.

BY TOMORROW MORNING...MOST PCPN WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BUT WILL BE
HANGING ONTO A CHC IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FOR IN THE MORNING ONLY.
BY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE PUSHED FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST
THAT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

THEN A STRONG HIGH PRSS RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST AND BRING
NORTHERLY SFC WINDS AND A NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH 84HRS WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FOR LATE
JUNE.

850 TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND +10C FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE TUE AND WED NIGHT THE COOLEST
PERIODS IN THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SFC RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CWA DRY AND BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND...THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN COAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LAY OVER AND
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT BRINGS REMNANTS OF ALEX UP THE
WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE MISS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BRING RAIN INTO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE
CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP WITH THE ECMWF WHICH BRING THE REMNANTS THROUGH
MEXICO AND INTO THE PLAINS AROUND THE RIDGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THIS
WOULD KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...SUNDAY.
ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WARM AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. SO EXPECT THE RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
FOR BY THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE BUT DO NOT
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY...SO ADJUSTED UPWARDS THERE.

AUTEN
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

SFC CDFNT MOVG THRU ERN IA WL PASS THRU THE CNTL IL TAF SITES BEF
06Z MON. TSTMS ARE DVLPG ALG MULTIPLE SFC BNDRYS AHD OF MAIN
CDFNT...WITH A THUNDER THREAT FOR SPI/DEC/CMI TIL AROUND 03Z.
FURTHER N FOR PIA/BMI...PCPN WL BE MORE ISOLD AND DO NOT PLAN ON
INCLUDING A TEMPO UNLESS LATER RADAR TRENDS WARRANT. WL PUT IN A
VCTS FOR THEM. AFT FROPA...VFR CONDS WL BE ON TAP WITH DRIER AIR.
WLY/NWLY SFC WNDS 10-15 KT EXPCTD AFT 14Z MON WITH A FEW AFTN CU
PSBL.

04
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
311 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-281100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-
SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
311 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...ALONG AND WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. MOST OF THE STORMS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER
DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>044-051>054-061-281100-
CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-
SHELBY-
311 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-281100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
311 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING...AS THE
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ045-046-055>057-281100-
CHAMPAIGN-COLES-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-VERMILION-
311 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

GEELHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
515 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

ILZ054-061-272300-
MOULTRIE-SHELBY-
515 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL SHELBY AND SOUTHEASTERN
MOULTRIE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 511 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHELBYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SHELBYVILLE...
  WINDSOR...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...CLARKSBURG...WOLF CREEK STATE
PARK...STRASBURG AND GAYS.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3955 8848 3937 8848 3931 8882 3943 8887
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 254DEG 26KT 3938 8876

AUTEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
547 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S SHELBYVILLE         39.36N 88.80W
06/27/2010                   SHELBY             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ON COPELAND ROAD

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
552 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SHELBYVILLE             39.41N 88.80W
06/27/2010  M1.06 INCH       SHELBY             IL   MESONET

            MEASURED IN 39 MINUTES. SWOP REPORT.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
622 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WINCHESTER              39.63N 90.46W
06/27/2010                   SCOTT              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE LIMBS DOWN AND ONE POWER LINE DOWN.

&&

25

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