Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
655 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 235 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IA MOVING EASTWARD...
HOWEVER THE MAIN BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR CENTRAL
ILLINOIS IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS IS STILL MOVING SOUTHWARD
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS...BUT HAS STALLED FURTHER WEST. THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR BURLINGTON TO CHAMPAIGN. SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE INITIAL STORM
MODE WITH ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
AFTER THAT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS WITH WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY ALSO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVER AREAS
WHERE THE SOIL IS SATURATED. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIVE THE
IOWA COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH A LESS HUMID
AIRMASS TAKING OVER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE JUST BEYOND THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS WESTERLIES AND
BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
FOR ITS PASSAGE. BEST ESTIMATED TIME FRAME FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO
BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO SEE NO REASON TO ALTER AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL STILL BAKE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH AN UPPER RIDGE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. THE
EASTERN TROUGH ALIGNMENT SUGGESTS THAT THE MONDAY FRONT SHOULD GET A
GOOD SHOVE TO THE SOUTH/EAST...THUS BRINGING A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS
INTO THE MIDWEST. THUS WILL KEEP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY AT
THIS TIME WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

04

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2010...FOR THE 00Z TAFS

A LINE OF SEVERE WIND STORMS WILL PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THE LEADING EDGE HAS PASSED PIA. WIND
GUSTS TO 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD AS THE
STORMS MOVE ACROSS. WILL TEMPO VRB20G45KT AT ALL SITES.

VIS AND CIG MAY DIP TO IFR FOR A TIME DURING THE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. SO FAR CIGS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED AT MVFR OR ABOVE
DURING THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE STORMS.

WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE W BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS...WITH SOME
LINGERING RAIN FOR 2-4 HRS. NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
MORNING...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH THUR MORNING.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT AS WELL.

MAY SEE SOME FOG FORMATION IF WINDS ARE ABLE TO BECOME LIGHT BY
SUNRISE. HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY FOR INCLUSION DURING AN UPDATE OR FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

SHIMON
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ036-040>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
310 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

ILZ027>031-037-038-241100-
KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
310 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND
AND HAIL THREAT...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HENRY
THROUGH BEARDSTOWN THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE SPOON RIVER AS WELL...FOR A COUPLE
MORE DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY FROM 300 PM THROUGH 900 PM THIS EVENING.

ILZ036-041>046-241100-
CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-FULTON-LOGAN-MASON-PIATT-VERMILION-
310 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND
AND HAIL THREAT...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE SPOON RIVER IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...MINOR
TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE TIME FRAME
ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED WILL BE FROM 300 PM UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

ILZ040-047>057-061>063-241100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MACON-MENARD-
MORGAN-MOULTRIE-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-
310 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS...IN ADDITION TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
SANGAMON RIVER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...ROUGHLY FROM 4 PM UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

ILZ066>068-071>073-241100-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
310 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MORE
LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE LITTLE
WABASH RIVER BY CLAY CITY AND THE EMBARRAS RIVER AT LAWRENCEVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY FROM
600 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

HJS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>