Flash Flood Watch 9, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

FORECAST CONCERN IS HOW HOT IT WILL BE THROUGH WED AND IF HEAT
ADVISORY NEEDED. ALSO ADDRESSING CONVECTION CHANCES ALONG WITH
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS THROUGH WED NIGHT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING QUICKLY
PAST 1-2 HOURS FROM SOUTHERN IA AND NE MO INTO CENTRAL IL NORTH OF
I-70 AND DRIFTING SLOWLY NE 15-20 MPH CLOSE TO A WARM FRONT OVER
CENTRAL IL. DECIDED TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING FOR
THE IL RIVER VALLEY WHERE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES AND GROUND IS VERY SATURATED ESPECIALLY NW OF THE IL RIVER
TOWARD GALESBURG. JUST 20-30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER SE IL
WHERE HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
EFFINGHAM...JASPER...CRAWFORD... CLAY...RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 95F AND HEAT INDICES PEAK
FROM 100-105F SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-70 SHOULD KEEP THEM FROM
GETTING QUITE AS HOT...THOUGH BECOMES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SPC CONTINUES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PER SPC...MULTIPLE MCS/S OR AT LEAST ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
REMNANTS OUTFLOW AND PERHAPS ONE OR MORE MCVS/ WILL BE ONGOING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...AMPLE DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION IS PROBABLE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING IL/INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF
OH/SOUTHERN LOWER MI. WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR ENE MOVING
CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASIDE FROM SOME MARGINAL HAIL
POTENTIAL.

TUE APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AND HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO I-74 WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S GIVING AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 100 TO 105F. BEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE FROM I-74 NORTH WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE SW AREAS. MCS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO SHIFT FURTHER NORTH OF
CENTRAL IL. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FROM RUSHVILLE TO
SPRINGFIELD TO TERRE HAUTE NE TUE/TUE NIGHT.

00Z MODELS SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW IL LATE WED
AFTERNOON AND THRU CENTRAL IL WED NIGHT. SO APPEARS A BIT HOTTER
WED AND BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO. HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED IN SE IL AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS I-72. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK BEST OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATER
IN THE DAY AND ACROSS REST OF AREA WED NIGHT. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL WED AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THEN A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTER INTO CENTRAL IL LATER THU INTO
FRI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO IL THIS WEEKEND WILL
RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION FROM MCS/S
NORTH OF IL OVER MN/WI.

HUETTL

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1157 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

MCS ONGOING IN KS/NEB AND MOVING INTO MO/IA WILL CONTINUE EAST BUT
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING. BELIEVE THIS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THAT PCPN WILL NOT REACH TAF SITES...HOWEVER DO
THINK CBS ARE POSSIBLE SO HAVE THAT IN TAFS WITH NO VCTS
MENTIONED. BELIEVE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LIKE TODAY
AND BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER AC AT 12KFT IN THE
MORNING...BELIEVE SOME SCT CU AT 6KFT WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. THEN EXPECTING THAT TO DISSIPATE IN THE
EVENING LEAVING CIRRUS BEHIND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THEN BECOME
SOUTHERLY TOMORROW THROUGH THE DAY.

AUTEN
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-
036-037-040-041.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ILZ066>068-071>073.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

ILZ027>031-036>038-041-211100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF IOWA...AND INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM PEORIA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BEARDSTOWN THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...AND MAY
ALSO DEVELOP UPSTREAM TOWARD HENRY. MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
ON THE SPOON RIVER AS WELL...FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING. DEPENDING
ON HOW THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM EVOLVES...SOME STORMS MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT DURING MUCH
OF THIS PERIOD...WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES...
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

ILZ040-042-047>052-211100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-LOGAN-MENARD-MORGAN-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF IOWA...AND INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE SANGAMON
RIVER...WHICH WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS. FLOODING ON THE
ILLINOIS RIVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. DEPENDING
ON HOW THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM EVOLVES...SOME STORMS MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT DURING MUCH
OF THIS PERIOD...WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES...EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

ILZ043>046-053>057-061-211100-
CHAMPAIGN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A FEW OF THESE
MAY BE SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. DEPENDING
ON HOW THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM EVOLVES...SOME STORMS MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT DURING MUCH
OF THIS PERIOD...WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES...EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-211100-
CLARK-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...BETWEEN I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE MAY
BE SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG MUCH OF THE
WABASH RIVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT.

ILZ071>073-211100-
CLAY-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE MAY
BE SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG MUCH OF THE
WABASH RIVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MINOR FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE LITTLE WABASH AND EMBARRAS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT.

GEELHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
234 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

ILZ051-052-210830-
CHRISTIAN-SANGAMON-
234 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN SANGAMON AND WESTERN
CHRISTIAN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

AT 232 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WHITE OAK...OR 10 MILES EAST OF VIRDEN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PAWNEE...
  KINCAID...
  EDINBURG...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...SICILY...TOVEY...SANGCHRIS LAKE
STATE PARK...BERRY AND SHARPSBURG.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3953 8954 3954 8978 3978 8947 3964 8925
      3945 8953 3945 8954
TIME...MOT...LOC 0735Z 227DEG 14KT 3954 8957

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
303 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

ILZ051>053-061-210900-
CHRISTIAN-MACON-SANGAMON-SHELBY-
303 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN CHRISTIAN...NORTHWESTERN
SHELBY...SOUTHERN SANGAMON AND SOUTHWESTERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 400
AM CDT...

AT 300 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KINCAID...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TAYLORVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EDINBURG...
  STONINGTON...
  MOUNT AUBURN...
  BLUE MOUND...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...TOVEY...SICILY...SANGCHRIS LAKE
STATE PARK...SHARPSBURG AND WILLEYS.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3982 8918 3963 8903 3947 8947 3963 8957
TIME...MOT...LOC 0803Z 246DEG 18KT 3959 8941

SMITH