Wind Advisory 2, NWS Wilmington, OH

556 
WWUS71 KILN 241937
NPWILN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
337 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010


INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-242045-
/O.CAN.KILN.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-100924T2200Z/
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-
LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-
LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...
KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...
BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA...
SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA
337 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THESE VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS A RESULT...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

WIND GUSTS OF THESE MAGNITUDES CAN STILL MOVE AROUND LIGHT...UNSECURED
OBJECTS...AS WELL AS KNOCK DOWN SMALL BRANCHES. CONTINUE TO USE
CAUTION IF OUTDOORS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1132 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT OUT IN INDIANA/ILLINOIS WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE FA THIS AFTN.
DUE TO THE DRYNESS AND SUNSHINE...TEMPS HAVE JUMPED THIS MORNING.
LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE A
LITTLE SLOWER. SO BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS PUTS
CENTRAL OH NEAR RECORD AGAIN. ALSO SLOWED DOWNED THE PCPN TIMING
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

WITH STRONG H8 JET OF 40-50 KTS AND ABUNDANT MIXING WINDS WILL
GUST THIS AFTN. LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
PCPN THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS EVENING AS FRONT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND IT. SUPPOSE A THUNDERSTORM
COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT BULK OF ANY REMAINING
PCPN SHOULD JUST BE SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. GIVEN CAA...THIS MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF...BUT WE SHOULD
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A
TAD WARMER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN DROP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS IS QUITE
VARIABLE AMONG THE MODELS...BUT OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF PCPN HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE
NEXT WEEK...FAVORING AMPLIFICATION...WITH LARGE TROUGHS AND/OR
CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS OF HOW THE WHOLE THING WILL
PLAY OUT ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...LEADING TO A VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY.

WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME...FOCUSING
PRECIP CHANCES EARLIER IN THE WEEK FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OFFSET SOME WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
EASTERN MISSOURI WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS CONFINED TO A THIN BAND...AND THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT AS FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO OHIO. ANY CIG/VSBY IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. BIGGER
CONCERN IS GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST HIGHER THAN 30-KT...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SHOULD BE QUICK TO CLEAR OUT AFTER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ARE ONCE AGAIN RIGHT ON THE BORDER OF RED
FLAG ISSUANCE. CURRENT MIN RH FCST ACRS THE SE IS IN THE UPPER 20
PERCENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON RED FLAG WARNING ATTM...BUT WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THE RH AND MIGHT HAVE TO ISSUE IF DEWPOINTS/RH DROP MORE
THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HAWBLITZEL
FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
457 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-250900-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
457 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 40 MPH. ALTHOUGH A WIND ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...THESE WIND GUSTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN SMALL BRANCHES
AS WELL AS MOVE LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS.

IN ADDITION...DRY GRASS AND VEGETATION COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS MAY POSE AN INCREASED RISK FOR ANY FIRES TO BECOME UNCONTROLLED
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS SHOULD A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING BE
NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088-250900-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
457 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HOT...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY GRASS AND VEGETATION COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS MAY POSE AN INCREASED RISK FOR ANY FIRES TO BECOME
UNCONTROLLED IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES
SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS SHOULD A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED
FLAG WARNING BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.