Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS
MICHIGAN...ILLINOIS AND INTO IOWA. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS THE BEST 850H CONVERGENCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP SOUTH NEAR OR INTO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ARE FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES SO
KEPT POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODELS HAVING CDFNT LOCATED
JUST NW OF THE FA. FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL ACT AS FOCUS FOR TSTM. MODELS STALL FNT NR THE OH RIVER MON
NGT.

EXPECT SCT TSTM TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUE WITH FNT IN THE VCNTY.

MODELS DEVELOP SFC LOW IN RESPONSE TO H5 S/W SWINGING THRU THE UPPER
MS VLY TUE NGT INTO WED. THIS LOW PUSHES CDFNT THRU THE FA ON WED.
WENT WITH HIGH CHC POPS WED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN ON WED NGT INTO THU. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL THRU FRI...WHEN ANOTHER CDFNT SWINGS OUT OF THE
MS VLY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
QUICKER THAN THE GFS. RAN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO.

FOR MONDAY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE GFS MOS. THEN WENT WITH AN
HPC/GFS MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
;ARGE AREA OF CONVECTION PUSHING EAST OVER INDIANA CONTINUING TO
HOLD TOGETHER AND APPROACH TAF LOCATIONS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WEAKENING...BUT HAVE STILL INCLUDED A VCTS DUING MAINLY THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME FOR THE WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS. WITH THIS
FIRST AREA TO PUSH THROUGH BY 06-08Z...HAVE LIFTED TO VFR DURING
THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. WITH THE CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH VCTS AFTER
19-20Z...WITH MVFR CIGS.

.OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PARKER
NEAR TERM...PARKER
SHORT TERM...PARKER
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JDR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
618 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

KYZ095-096-122300-
GRANT KY-PENDLETON KY-
618 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PENDLETON AND NORTHEASTERN GRANT
COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 616 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GENE
SNYDER AIRPORT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...WITH AS
MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUTLER AND FALMOUTH.

ALSO...MOUNT AUBURN...MARCUS...CATAWBA...MORGAN AND MCKINNEYSBURG ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3878 8457 3880 8445 3881 8440 3882 8437
      3885 8425 3857 8423 3855 8449

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
622 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NEW RICHMOND            38.96N 84.28W
06/12/2010                   CLERMONT           OH   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            WATER RAN INTO THE FIRST FLOOR OF A COUPLE OF HOUSES IN
            NEW RICHMOND.

1230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      9 NW FELICITY           38.93N 84.22W
06/12/2010                   CLERMONT           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FOOTBRIDGE ACROSS BIG INDIAN CREEK WASHED OUT NEAR BIG
            INDIAN ROAD AND WEIL ROAD.

&&

MJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
816 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

OHZ034-042-043-130100-
DARKE OH-SHELBY OH-MERCER OH-
816 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MERCER...
SHELBY AND NORTHERN DARKE COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 813 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ROSSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...ANSONIA...VERSAILLES...
FORT LORAMIE...SIDNEY...JACKSON CENTER...BOTKINS AND ANNA.

ALSO...NEW WESTON...ROSSBURG...BURKETTSVILLE...NORTH STAR...BROCK...
DARKE COUNTY AIRPORT...PIKEVILLE AND YORKSHIRE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 4019 8402 4019 8440 4010 8482 4019 8482
      4035 8481 4038 8444 4036 8443 4038 8442
      4038 8433 4040 8433 4046 8430 4048 8403

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
823 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

OHZ055-130100-
FRANKLIN OH-
823 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN COUNTY
THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 822 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLUMBUS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BEXLEY...GAHANNA...
GROVEPORT AND CANAL WINCHESTER.

ALSO...NEW ALBANY...WHITEHALL...OBETZ...BLACKLICK ESTATES AND BRICE
ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3981 8282 3982 8324 4012 8309 4012 8278