Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
355 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DESPITE AN UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS IN PLACE...CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO GET GOING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP ASCENT...EVIDENT
IN THE WAY CONVECTIVE TOWERS RISE THEN DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER.
BEST LIFT SO FAR HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO AHEAD OF
A WEAK IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TAIL END OF THIS
FEATURE WILL CLIP THE BELLEFONTAINE/COLUMBUS/NEWARK CORRIDOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
FOUND. WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND MAX DELTA THETA-E
VALUES APPROACHING 30K...MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNWARD MOMENTUM IS PARTICULARLY
EVIDENT BY THE LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WHICH WAS
PRODUCED BY A SMALL DOWNBURST OVER SOUTHERN PENDLETON COUNTY
EARLIER TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CLIP THE SOUTHEAST
CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 850 HPA JET
MAX. SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA IS WEAKER...THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE
A THREAT FOR A BRIEF DOWNBURST.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AS NOCTURNAL INVERSION BEGINS TO CUT OFF
SURFACE-BASED INSTBY. ANOTHER WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT. IF LIFT IS DEEP
ENOUGH...THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR SATURDAY IS THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...AND THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY MORNING...THERE
REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE IMPACT OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ON AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION LATER IN THE DAY. IF
RAIN AND CLOUDS DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER DAYTIME
HEATING...THEN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE...AND SET THE
STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER IN THE DAY. BEST TIME FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL AS PROVIDE ADEQUATE FORCING FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. A LOT OF THE QUESTIONS REGARDING AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION AND THE TIMING/LOCATION OF CONVECTION DEPENDS ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THESE FACTORS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BE PINNED DOWN UNTIL
EARLY TOMORROW...BUT THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SEVERE
WINDS...HAIL AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. BEST FLOODING THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. CURRENT HWO HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS THREAT.

FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. WENT CLOSE TO A MET/SREF
BLEND FOR TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WENT WITH AN ECMWF AND GFS BLEND HOWEVER SIDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION.  THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WET AROUND
THE FA.  COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND AS IT DOES
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND
REMAIN AROUND THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON THURS AND INTO FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK.  WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL LATELY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. COVERAGE MAY NOT
GET ANY BETTER THAN SCATTERED. SO CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IMPACTING
ANY OF THE TERMINALS IS LOW. THUS AVOIDED TEMPO FOR NOW AND OPTED
FOR VCTS FOR THE TWO TO THREE HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE GREATEST THREAT
IS. APPEARS THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY
00Z. EXPECT SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION THERE
MAY BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES LATE AT NIGHT IN MIST/FOG.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE AN
EXTENDED CHANCE OF STORMS FROM KDAY TO KCMH.

.OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HAWBLITZEL
NEAR TERM...HAWBLITZEL
SHORT TERM...HAWBLITZEL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

KYZ094-042100-
OWEN KY-
413 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN OWEN COUNTY THROUGH
500 PM EDT...

AT 409 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MONTEREY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...OWENTON.

ALSO...MONTEREY...BEECHWOOD...NEW COLUMBUS...NEEDMORE AND NATLEE ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3835 8487 3838 8491 3842 8490 3844 8493
      3845 8493 3842 8497 3846 8497 3848 8499
      3861 8476 3856 8468 3851 8466 3847 8459
      3836 8471 3833 8481

HAWBLITZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
457 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

KYZ096-097-OHZ078-042145-
PENDLETON KY-BRACKEN KY-CLERMONT OH-
457 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CLERMONT...BRACKEN AND
EASTERN PENDLETON COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 455 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LENOXBURG...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BROOKSVILLE...FELICITY
AND AUGUSTA.

ALSO...MOUNT AUBURN...NEAVE...LENOXBURG...FOSTER...BERLIN...
NEVILLE...POWERSVILLE AND WILLOW GROVE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3875 8440 3889 8404 3877 8405 3879 8398
      3878 8395 3876 8391 3866 8397 3859 8432

HAWBLITZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
555 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

OHZ062-042230-
GREENE OH-
555 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GREENE COUNTY THROUGH 630 PM
EDT...

AT 550 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BEAVERCREEK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...FAIRBORN...XENIA...
YELLOW SPRINGS...WILBERFORCE...CEDARVILLE AND JAMESTOWN.

ALSO...GREENE COUNTY AIRPORT...TREBEIN...OLDTOWN...JOHN BRYAN STATE
PARK...CLIFTON...NEW JASPER...ROSEMOOR AND BELL CENTER ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3984 8394 3983 8393 3982 8383 3979 8382
      3979 8377 3978 8373 3978 8365 3962 8366
      3967 8410 3984 8409 3985 8405

HAWBLITZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

OHZ046-042245-
DELAWARE OH-
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY THROUGH
645 PM EDT...

AT 559 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHAWNEE
HILLS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...POWELL AND SUNBURY.

ALSO...STRATFORD...LEWIS CENTER...ALUM CREEK STATE PARK...GALENA AND
CENTER VILLAGE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4026 8275 4012 8276 4012 8280 4016 8315
      4027 8318 4032 8273 4027 8273

HAWBLITZEL

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