Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
243 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THHIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING A HOT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING CURRENT MESOSCALE FEATURES THIS AFTN...SO
WILL HAVE TO BASE FORECAST ON CURRENT TRENDS.

A VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL INDIANA THIS AFTN. THIS VORT MAX
WILL MOVE INTO OHIO BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A THERMAL TROF
WAS NOTED AT THE SFC ACRS THE SRN CWFA. THE VORT MAX AND THE
THERMAL TROF WILL COMBINED TO BRING SOME WEAK FORCING TO THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. MLCAPES HAVE REACHED AT
LEAST 1000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 SO MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. ALSO...DCAPE VALUES IN THE HOTTER AIRMASS
WERE RANGING FROM 1000-1300 J/KG WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. THUS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO CNTRL INDIANA AND
CNTRL OHIO THIS EVENING...STALL OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN HEAD
NE AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT AS UPR LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. PCPN IS FORECAST TO END
BY MIDNIGHT AS VORT MAX SHEARS AND THE AIRMASS STABILIZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LVL RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION ON THURSDAY. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACHING +19 C...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S.
RECORD HIGHS APPEAR TO BE IN JEOPARDY ON THURSDAY. THE RECORDS ARE
90...93...AND 92 AT CMH...DAY AND CVG RESPECTIVELY. CMH SHOULD
BREAK THEIR RECORD AND CVG WILL AT LEAST TIE. DAY MAY BE HARD
PRESSED TO REACH 93 DEGREES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...UPR LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME WIND...WHICH WILL
PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPR LVL TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. MAIN UPR LVL
DYNAMICS STAY TO THE N. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS TO POOL RIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THUS WILL NOT BE COLLOCATED WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES. THE END RESULT WILL BE WEAK INSTABILITY DESPITE A
GOOD WIND SHEAR REGIME. SPEAKING OF WINDS...WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW
TO THE NORTH AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 MPH SOUTH
TO AROUND 40 MPH NORTH. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONT...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES...TEMPERATURES COULD AGAIN
GET SNEAKY WARM...ESPECIALLY IN OUR E/SE CWFA. AM EXPECTING PCPN
TO COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORCING DWINDLES AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO START OFF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST...AND THE PATTERN THAT EVOLVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FROM THERE THE EVOLUTION IS NOT
HANDLED WELL AT ALL AND THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES SHARPLY DOWN.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL LEAVE DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. THE FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON MOISTURE GETTING
PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW...AND PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...BUT THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS IT IN PLACE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PREDICT THE LOW TO MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AT
VARIOUS TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AT THE CURRENT RUN TIME AND FROM PAST RUNS INDICATE A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. SO...WILL GO WITH SMALL
CHANGES FOR NOW. HAVE EXTENDED POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH
THE UNDERSTANDING THAT THE REST OF THE WEEK IS NOT A SURE BET TO BE
DRY EITHER.

TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OFFSET SOME WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 S/W SWINGING THRU THE OH VLY IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVG THRU INDIANA. A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED S OF THIS SYSTEM IN
SRN INDIANA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS CREATED SOME SFC
INSTABILITY. BULK OF INDIANA CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL MISS THE
TAFS. KDAY MIGHT GET BRUSHED BY IT IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. KEPT
THE PCPN AS A VCSH AT KDAY WITH THE INITIAL PACKAGE. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME DEVELOPMENT ON THE SRN EDGE...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE OUT FOR AN AMENDMENT. REST OF TAFS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

CDFNT STALLS OUT IN NRN OH THIS EVENING AND H5 S/W SWINGS E. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLR AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES E. H5 RIDGE REBUILDS
ACRS THE FA BY 12Z THU...PUSHING THE FNT N INTO MI.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
500 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-230900-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
500 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
243 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

INZ050-059-OHZ042-060-221930-
WAYNE IN-UNION IN-DARKE OH-PREBLE OH-
243 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PREBLE...SOUTHERN DARKE...
NORTHEASTERN UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM
EDT...

AT 239 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WITTS
STATION...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...NEW PARIS...CAMDEN...
EATON...NEW MADISON...GRATIS...WEST ALEXANDRIA...LEWISBURG AND
ARCANUM.

ALSO...SPRING GROVE...RICHMOND MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...FAIRHAVEN...
MORNING SUN...MIDDLEBORO...WEST FLORENCE...SUGAR VALLEY AND
MUTTONVILLE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3988 8498 4007 8442 3992 8442 3992 8449
      3961 8449 3957 8497

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
314 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

OHZ042-043-051-060-061-222000-
MIAMI OH-DARKE OH-SHELBY OH-MONTGOMERY OH-PREBLE OH-
314 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN PREBLE...
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN SHELBY...EASTERN DARKE AND MIAMI COUNTIES
THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 308 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM VERSAILLES TO CAMDEN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...PLEASANT HILL...WEST
MILTON...PIQUA...ENGLEWOOD...SIDNEY...TROTWOOD...TROY...TIPP CITY...
MIAMISBURG...VANDALIA...WEST CARROLLTON AND MORAINE.

ALSO...PHILLIPSBURG...BROOKVILLE...GARLAND...LUDLOW FALLS...
FARMERSVILLE...NEWBERN...HARDIN AND NEW LEBANON ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4033 8402 4001 8404 3959 8418 3959 8447
      3957 8448 3957 8475 4030 8455

HATZOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
336 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

OHZ043-044-051>053-061-062-222015-
GREENE OH-CLARK OH-MIAMI OH-CHAMPAIGN OH-SHELBY OH-LOGAN OH-
MONTGOMERY OH-
336 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN MONTGOMERY...
SOUTHERN LOGAN...SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...CHAMPAIGN...EASTERN MIAMI...
CLARK AND GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 334 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SIDNEY TO KETTERING...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB...
BEAVERCREEK...FAIRBORN...BELLBROOK...BELLEFONTAINE...ENON...WEST
LIBERTY...YELLOW SPRINGS...XENIA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD AND
WILBERFORCE.

ALSO...SPRINGHILLS...CENTERVILLE...CRYSTAL LAKES...DIALTON...
THACKERY...NORTH HAMPTON...DONNELSVILLE AND TERRE HAUTE ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4041 8353 4023 8354 4022 8349 4001 8351
      3977 8359 3977 8365 3955 8367 3960 8435
      4033 8415

HATZOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
337 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ070>072-077-078-222030-
DEARBORN IN-RIPLEY IN-OHIO IN-SWITZERLAND IN-GRANT KY-BOONE KY-
CAMPBELL KY-KENTON KY-PENDLETON KY-GALLATIN KY-CARROLL KY-OWEN KY-
CLERMONT OH-HAMILTON OH-CLINTON OH-BUTLER OH-WARREN OH-
337 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WARREN...BUTLER...
CLINTON...HAMILTON...NORTHERN CLERMONT...NORTHERN OWEN...CARROLL...
GALLATIN...NORTHWESTERN PENDLETON...KENTON...CAMPBELL...BOONE...
GRANT...SWITZERLAND...OHIO...SOUTHEASTERN RIPLEY AND SOUTHERN
DEARBORN COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 334 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM POAST TOWN HEIGHTS TO BRIGHT TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LOCUST...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...HAMILTON...TRENTON...
CLEVES...CARLISLE...FAIRFIELD...SOUTH MIDDLETOWN...MIDDLETOWN...
FRANKLIN...FOREST PARK...CARROLLTON...RISING SUN AND SPRINGBORO.

ALSO...MOOREFIELD...HARTFORD...PETERSBURG...FAIRVIEW...GRANDVIEW...
LOCUST...PATE AND FRENCH ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3875 8527 3871 8521 3891 8522 3957 8454
      3959 8426 3954 8360 3924 8390 3924 8398
      3915 8399 3856 8465 3855 8502 3860 8509
      3860 8523 3874 8534