Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DOWN INTO THE EASTERN MIAMI VALLEY. THE NORTHERN
PART OF THIS LINE IS MOVING EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY WHILE THE SOUTHERN
EDGE IS TRAILING BACK TO THE WEST. BEST INSTABILITIES ARE
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OHIO WHERE ML
CAPES ARE IN THE VICINITY OF 1000 J/KG. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA OF
BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SO IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE COLUMBUS AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AFTER
THAT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
LIMITED. WILL THEREFORE TAPER OFF PCPN CHANCES FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. WE MAY GO MAINLY CLEAR FOR A WHILE LATER THIS EVENING AS
WE START TO LOSE SOME OF THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME LOWER CIGS OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA IN DEVELOPING CAA
PATTERN OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF OUR FA OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ASSUMING STRATUS DECK MAKES IT DOWN INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT...SOME
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
ARE SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BUT WILL NOT GO QUITE
THAT WARM AS MORNING CLOUDS COULD GET US OFF TO A SLOW START. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A BIT OF A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS NOTED BEHIND IT. THUNDER IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITHOUT STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT IS NOTED WITH THESE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH BEYOND SUNDAY SO
I LEFT ANY RAIN AS JUST SHOWERS. LARGEST TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL
BE NOTED ON SUNDAY IN THE RAIN-COOLED AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MID
70S NOTED N OF I-70 AND MID 80S S OF THE OHIO RIVER. THINK THAT
SOUTHERN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TOO WARM BUT THIS MATCHED WELL
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT AND
MON...SLIDING INTO THE NERN U.S. MON NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AS FLOW TURNS SOUTH. THIS STRONGER SRLY
FLOW WILL BE PRETTY UNIFORM OVER THE REGION AND USHER IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH ON WED...BUT THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN GIVEN UNIFORM WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT STRETCHES NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY 00Z. EXPECT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25
KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. SEEMS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT
THEY WILL IMPACT KDAY...KCMH AND KLCK. WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT IS LESS CERTAIN THAT THEY WILL
IMPACT THE OTHER TERMINALS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION THERE
COULD BE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT SCATTER
UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
320 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>073-077>082-088-
171930-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
320 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-074-171930-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-HOCKING-
320 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 668 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY
OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
200 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051-161900-
MIAMI OH-DARKE OH-SHELBY OH-LOGAN OH-AUGLAIZE OH-MERCER OH-HARDIN OH-
200 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

...A BROKEN LINE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
HARDIN...MERCER...AUGLAIZE...NORTHWESTERN LOGAN...SHELBY...NORTHERN
DARKE AND NORTHWESTERN MIAMI COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 151 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM ROCKFORD TO FORT RECOVERY TO WEST OF UNION CITY...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...COLDWATER...CELINA...
ST. HENRY...ST. MARYS...UNION CITY...NEW KNOXVILLE...NEW BREMEN...
CRIDERSVILLE...WAPAKONETA...ANSONIA...MINSTER AND BOTKINS.

ALSO...MENDON...NEPTUNE...MONTEZUMA...CARTHAGENA...NORTH DAYTON...
KOSSUTH...BULKHEAD AND CHICKASAW ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4054 8369 4015 8436 4016 8482 4042 8481
      4073 8464 4073 8445 4069 8444 4069 8423
      4066 8420 4065 8410 4065 8389 4082 8387
      4081 8353

BINAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
250 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             WAYNESFIELD             40.60N 83.97W
09/16/2010  E0.88 INCH       AUGLAIZE           OH   PUBLIC

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
251 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAYNESFIELD             40.60N 83.97W
09/16/2010                   AUGLAIZE           OH   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN.

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
324 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     HAIL             BELLEFONTAINE           40.36N 83.76W
09/16/2010  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KURZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
337 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

OHZ051>054-162030-
CLARK OH-MADISON OH-MIAMI OH-CHAMPAIGN OH-
337 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CHAMPAIGN...EASTERN
MIAMI...NORTHERN MADISON AND NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM
EDT...

AT 335 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HAVEN
VIEW...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...NEW CARLISLE...
SPRINGFIELD...CHOCTAW LAKE AND LONDON.

ALSO...CHRISTIANSBURG...DONNELSVILLE...NORTH HAMPTON...DIALTON...
THACKERY...TERRE HAUTE...LAWRENCEVILLE AND TREMONT CITY ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4008 8326 3982 8335 3994 8413 4006 8407

BINAU