Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
822 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
FOUND BETWEEN THIS WARM FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER BUT MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATING TO SPREAD SHOWERS NORTHEAST ALONG BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY
LAYER IS STABILIZING SO THE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT
BE ABLE TO CONTINUE MUCH MORE THAN THE NEXT HALF HOUR TO HOUR.

SHOWERS HAVE FIRED ALONG THE BOUNDARY RUNNING WNW-ESE THROUGH
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT THAT
THEY ARE POPPING ON WILL LIFT THROUGH CWA THIS EVENING AND BECOME
MORE ACTIVE ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STORMS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOSE A LOT OF THEIR PUNCH
WITH THE SETTING SUN. DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE THAT MUCH AND I
HAVE THE STORMS REMAINING SCATTERED THIS EVENING AS NOT EVERY SPOT
WILL BE GETTING RAINFALL.

WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH TONIGHT AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THEM FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG JET WILL SEE TURBULENT MIXING AS EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING.
SUNNY SKIES WILL HEAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME GUSTS MAY REACH
AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH...SIMILAR BUT A LITTLE WEAKER THAN WHAT
WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. ALSO...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS JUST A LITTLE FURTHER ALOFT.

HIGH TEMPERATURS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE BUT SHOULD STAY SHY OF
THE RECORDS CVG 84 DAY AND CMH 83. WIND WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY AS
THE SUN ANGLE LOWERS AND SETS LATER IN THE DAY.

COLD FRONT IS BEING PROGGED QUICKER BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE TREND
OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO IS TO PUSH THESE SYSTEMS BY QUICKLY. I
TRIED TO MAKE A LIKELY BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSH NW-SE THROUGH
CWA LATE WED AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM WITH
A GOOD BIT OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND AS MARKED AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE AFFECTING THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE
ADJUSTED THEMSELVES QUICKER WITH FROPA. 12Z GFS/CANADIAN AND 00Z
ECMWF HAVE FRONT PUSHED INTO ERN OH BY 12Z THU. THE NAM MEANWHILE
HAS THE FNT BACK IN WRN OH. WITH THE MODELS OSCULATING ON THE SPEED
OF THIS SYSTEM...DECIDED TO RUN A BLEND AND PLACED IT IN S CNTL OH.

FNT WILL QUICKLY PUSH E THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FA...AND PCPN CHC
SHOULD END FROM W TO E ON THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON THU.
COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
DOWN...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH MIGHT CAUSE A REBOUND IN TEMPS.

ALL MODELS ARE STILL SWINGING H5 TROF THRU THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH
VLY ON FRI. IT STILL LOOK LIKE THIS SHOULD KICK OFF SOME INSTABILITY
SHRA. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN INTO 50S.

GFS HAS JOINED THE ECMWF IN BUILDING SFC HIGH INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND. BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD MODELS TRY AND BRING SOME WEAK ENERGY ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL STAY N OF THE FA.

WENT A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS AND THE GFS MEX MOS THRU THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS IT DOES SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS POINT AND THEREFORE HAVE
LIMITED MENTION TO CB. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE TAF
SITES BY 03Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL MIX DOWN DRIER AIR...BUT AN
INVERSION AROUND 4000 FEET WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INTERATCTION
POSSIBLE. DRIER AND WINDIER AIR WILL BE JUST ABOVE THIS INVERSION
BUT SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT REACH
THE MAGIC 25 PERCENT THRESHOLD...BUT IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT
DEEPER MIXING WOULD BOTH INCREASE THE WINDS AND/OR DECREASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIY SIGNIFICANTLY.

A WATCH IS NOT PRUDENT AT THIS TIME AS RFW CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT
MATERIALIZE. WE ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR DRIER/WINDIER
CONDITIONS THAT MAY MATERIALIZE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK
FIRE WEATHER...

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