Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Wilmington, OH

Dearborn County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Union County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Boone County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Preble County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Warren County, OH

096 
WWUS81 KILN 211423
RFWILN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1023 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...

.WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRE GROWTH AND
SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINE WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT...LOW
FUEL MOISTURE...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY FIRES STARTED
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD QUICKLY SPREAD AND BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060-070-071-077>079-
081-088-212230-
/O.CON.KILN.FW.W.0002.101021T1800Z-101022T0000Z/
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-PREBLE-BUTLER-WARREN-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-ADAMS-SCIOTO-
1023 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

THE COMBINATION OF VERY DRY FUELS...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CAUSE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY
FIRE COULD QUICKLY GET OUT OF CONTROL AND SPREAD RAPIDLY IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

231 
WWUS81 KILN 211958
RFWILN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...

.WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRE GROWTH AND
SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINE WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT...LOW
FUEL MOISTURE...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY FIRES STARTED
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD QUICKLY SPREAD AND BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060-070-071-077>079-
081-088-220000-
/O.CON.KILN.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-101022T0000Z/
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-PREBLE-BUTLER-WARREN-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-ADAMS-SCIOTO-
358 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE COMBINATION OF VERY DRY FUELS...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CAUSE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY
FIRE COULD QUICKLY GET OUT OF CONTROL AND SPREAD RAPIDLY IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

763 
WWUS81 KILN 220000
RFWILN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
800 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060-070-071-077>079-
081-088-220100-
/O.CAN.KILN.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-101022T0000Z/
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-PREBLE-BUTLER-WARREN-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-ADAMS-SCIOTO-
800 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW
ABOVE 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER BEING MET...DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
127 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER AIR DURING
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FA. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL STAY UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS NOT A FROST THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S AND WITH WINDS STAYING UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE PERIOD.
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING LOW PRESSURE OVER
SE CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
BRISK WNW WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING. THE
WIND FLOW WILL BE A BIT CYCLONIC AND ALSO OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH...WHILE SKIES REMAIN SUNNY IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
COMBINED WITH DRY AIR...IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLD TEMPS AND
FROST POTENTIAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SCOOTS BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A CORRESPONDING REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES STARTING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH REGARDS TO A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER TROF BEGINS TAKING SHAPE ALONG
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
20.12Z GFS IS BEGINNING TO FALL IN LINE WITH THE LATEST ECMWF AND
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM FOR THE WEATHER GENERICS.

WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. WHILE A DECAYING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS
TO FADE INTO A QUASI-SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE HEART OF THE CONUS.
BY SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROF THAT RACES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY
BEFORE DISSOLVING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROF IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD REINFORCE THE PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA...PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY
TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WINDOW.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS
AND THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROF BEGINS ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH FOR THE POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH GENERALLY 20 TO 40 POP THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...AND EXPECT THAT THIS
WINDOW WILL REQUIRE SOME FINE TUNING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLOUD COVERAGE THEREAFTER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A CONSERVATIVE
DIURNAL RANGE THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES...DESPITE A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY. FRONT CURRENTLY
RUNNING ACROSS NWRN OH INTO CNTL INDIANA WITH A GOOD PUSH PER
GUSTY NWLY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST JUXTAPOSITION
OF FORCING/MOISTURE OVER SERN LOWER MI AND HEADING EAST...SO DON/T
EXPECT ANY RAIN AT TAF SITES. THINK SOME SCT VFR CLOUDS LIKELY AT
ALL SITES AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WITH STILL AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE AT A BRIEF BKN VFR CIG AT KCMH/KLCK BOTH THIS MORNING WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THIS AFTERNOON IN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
REGIME AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER FACTOR WILL BE GUSTY NWLY WINDS AFTER ABOUT
15Z...WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME UNSTABLE
OVERTURNING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALLOW A FEW GUSTS TOWARD
25KT. RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT WITH STRONG INVERSION
SETTING UP IN THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL EXIST ON THURSDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MEET CRITERIA WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE SOUTH
PART OF THE CWA AND 30 MPH IN THE NORTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE IN THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY. THESE VALUES DO
NOT REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RAISE SOME
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY FUEL MOISTURES OF AROUND 10
PERCENT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...BINAU
FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
903 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-220115-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
903 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER REMAINING IN PLACE.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION IS EXPECTED...AND SOME
AREAS MAY APPROACH FREEZING CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.