Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL SERVE TO SET OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SOMEWHAT
COOLER...BUT DEFINITELY DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAT ADVISORIES MOST AREAS...BUT MAY CANCEL
SOME NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

FORECAST FILLED WITH COMPLEXITIES GIVEN OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARIES...WHICH TO CONTINUE TO BE
MODULATED BY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. AMBIENT AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE
VERY UNSTABLE...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS ALLOWING MLCAPES IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG DESPITE EXTREMELY POOR MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.75 INCHES ISN/T OFF THE CHARTS...BUT
STILL SUPPORTIVE OF TREMENDOUS RAINFALL RATES WITH STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
WEAK TODAY/TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH STILL
DOMINATES...BUT VERY STRONG LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG MANITOBA WILL
CHANGE THAT AS IT SLIDES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

FORECAST PROBLEM LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT IS VERY WELL DEFINED MCV
/MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX/ NEAR CHICAGO AND THIS HAS BEEN
INITIALIZED WELL BY RUC RUNS TODAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE DUE
EAST ACROSS NRN IND/OH THIS EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS INDIANA AND
OHIO DESPITE EXTREMELY WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC/BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THIS COULD CHANGE GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...AND NOW NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS SURGING AROUND THE AREA. IN
FACT KILN WSR-88D THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING NUMEROUS WAYWARD
PROPAGATING OUTFLOWS AROUND CURRENT TSRA COMPLEXES...ANY OF WHICH
MAY INSTIGATE DEEP CONVECTION.

SEVERE THREAT OVERALL IS SMALL...BUT THINK THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
A FEW REPORTS OF STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GIVEN HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE
PER MESOSCALE ANALYSIS /1300 J/KG OVER CNTL OH/ AND COLLAPSE OF
THE STRONGEST CORES...OR BRIEFLY ORGANIZING LINE SEGMENTS.
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR AND MAGNITUDE NOT OVERLY
CONDUCIVE TO COLD POOL DOMINATED LINE SEGMENTS...AND THIS
CONFIRMED ON RADAR SO FAR TODAY WITH OUTFLOW QUICKLY SURGING OUT
AHEAD OF STORMS.

BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE MCV/S AT NIGHT BECOMES HEAVY RAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE ADVANCING CIRCULATION WHERE WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET CAN ALLOW FOR BACKWARD PROPAGATING/REGENERATIVE MCS.
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNAL FOR THIS IN SOME OF THE RECENT NAM-WRF
RUNS BUT LOCATION HAS BEEN DIFFERENT...SO WILL MONITOR THIS.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT...AND RELIED ON LOW TEMP NUMBERS VERY
CLOSE TO METMOS...WITH CONTRIBUTION FROM BIAS-CORRECTED 2M SREF TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STILL A COMPLEX FORECAST SUNDAY AND THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW
BOUNDARIES TONIGHT CONTINUE TO BE LAID DOWN. THE STRONG
MCV/CIRCULATION FROM TONIGHT SHOULD BE DEPARTING IN THE MORNING
AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN IT/S WAKE...BUT THERE ARE
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. THERE IS NO DOUBT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE SRN CANADA VORTEX SWINGS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...SO THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
IS HIGHER TOMORROW THAN TODAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...SO ATMOSPHERE WILL EASILY BECOME
UNSTABLE WITH ANY HEATING. RIGHT NOW THERE IS A LACK OF STRONGER
FORCING...BUT A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY
AID IN EXPANDING TSRA CLUSTERS AGAIN. SEE STORM PREDICTION CENTERS
SWODY2 /DAY 2 OUTLOOK/ REGARDING THE COMPLEXITIES AND FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE STORM THREAT. CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY
WORDING ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST....WITH A DIMINISHING TREND
DURING THE EVENING BOTH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT ALSO AS
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DRY OUT IN WAKE OF WEAK WIND SHIFT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.

MAY NEED YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW BUT WILL LET MIDNIGHT
SHIFT SEE WHERE BOUNDARIES LAY OUT AND SEE IF THEY CAN GET A
BETTER FEEL FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ON WHERE APPROPRIATE PLACEMENT
SHOULD BE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES ON MONDAY. SO
HAVE HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR MIDWEEK. CANNOT COMPLETELY PRECLUDE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. BUT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OF UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN A FRONT SAGS TOWARDS THE AREA AND ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER A SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIRMASS WILL TEMPORARILY SPREAD IN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR THROUGH PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT WOULD LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS FOR BRIEF PERIOD. BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN AGAIN JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR ANY TSRA WIND GUSTS. SOME
FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE ESPECIALLY AT LUK DEPENDING ON AMOUNTS
OF SHRA/TSRA.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ073-077>082-
     088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
556 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E WATERLOO            38.97N 84.77W
08/14/2010                   BOONE              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN.

&&

BINAU

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