Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A FAVORED TRACK FOR WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TO TRACK ALONG THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WRINGING
OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATING TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION THAT FIRED ALONG A BOUNDARY TO
THE WEST. STORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA AND SLOWLY
SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING AS THEY SLOWLY BLEND THEIR INDIVIDUAL
UPDRAFTS TOGETHER AND DIE OUT LATER THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO INITIATE MORE IN THE SOUTHEAST...WILL AMEND
FORECAST AGAIN IF THIS OCCURS.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...NOT TOO FAR
OFF OF CURRENT DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEGATES
ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY STILL BE LINGERING ALONG IT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM OR
DOWNSTREAM SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND THIS APPEARS TO
HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF OCCURRANCE THAN CONVECTION TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BUT CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE LAST FEW DAYS. MID 80S AND MID 60S FOR
MAX/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE LONG TERM WAS TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY AS
MODELS ARE AGREEING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NEXT
FRONT MOVING IN A LITTLE QUICKER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON TIMING BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A LOW
CHANCE POP AT THIS POINT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS CLOSE TO 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
AFTER THIS PASSES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AROUND THE AREA FOR THURSDAY EXPECT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AND AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1141 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-030815-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
1141 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS BEING CAPPED IN THE WAKE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHERE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE FOR THESE STORMS AND ALSO HOW STRONG
THEY BECOME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
LOCATION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

CHANCES FOR OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 71 ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

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