Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
750 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA HAS
ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. ML
CAPES HAVE NOW CLIMBED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE INDIANA/OHIO
BORDER. AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO PIVOT INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WEST. PCPN SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
WEST...TAPERING DOWN TO LIKELY IN THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT MODELS
ARE HANGING ON TO SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITIES ALL THE WAY THROUGH
12Z . WILL THEREFORE KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ATTM AS WIND
FIELDS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. THAT BEING SAID...IF ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY CAN GET INTO OUR WESTERN FA BEFORE WE BEGIN TO LOSE SOME
OF OUR BETTER INSTABILITIES...WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME HAIL...AND SUPPOSE SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME BACK BUILDING WITH THE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO
FLOODING COULD ACTUALLY BECOME A BIGGER CONCERN THEN HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME LINGERING INSTABILITIES ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ON INTO
SATURDAY. EXPECT PCPN THREAT TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY AS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE
BEGIN OT DRY OUT...BUT WILL TREND HIGHS TOWARD THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN
PINCH OFF INTO ONTARIO BY MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF ONTARIO AND NEW YORK AS WELL...BUT WITH WESTWARD-MOVING
MOISTURE FLOW AROUND ITS SOUTH EDGE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
GENERAL PATTERN IS PRETTY WELL IN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND
ECMWF.

DESPITE THE DECENT HEIGHTS GENERALLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO LIMIT THIS TO 20 POPS IN
DIURNAL PERIODS BASED ON A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING. SHOULD
ALSO BE NOTED THAT WINDS LOOK PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THE COLUMN...SO
SHEAR MAY NOT BE HIGH...AND STORM MOTION MAY BE SLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE PRETTY STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. MONDAY LOOKS A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MAYBE A GENERAL WARMING OF A DEGREE OR SO
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
IFR CEILINGS ARE INDICATED BY MODELS AROUND 09Z WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ABOUT 20Z WITH HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AT SPEEDS OF
11 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AFTER 01Z
SUNDAY AT CVG.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO MIST/FOG.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1133 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-
051>053-060>062-070>072-077-078-221545-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-
CLARK-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-
1133 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

KYZ097>100-OHZ045-046-054>056-063>065-073-074-079>082-088-221545-
BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-
LICKING-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-ROSS-HOCKING-BROWN-HIGHLAND-
ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
1133 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
740 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

KYZ097>099-OHZ078-079-220015-
BRACKEN KY-MASON KY-ROBERTSON KY-CLERMONT OH-BROWN OH-
740 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BROWN...
SOUTHEASTERN CLERMONT...ROBERTSON...NORTHWESTERN MASON AND BRACKEN
COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 736 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FEESBURG TO SANTA FE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED...WHICH MAY FLOOD
DRAINAGE DITCHES AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS..

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BROOKSVILLE...BETHEL...
AUGUSTA...MOUNT ORAB...GEORGETOWN AND RIPLEY.

ALSO...BANTAM...MOUNT OLIVET...HITTVILLE...FEESBURG...HAMERSVILLE...
SARDIS...PARINA AND CHATHAM ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THESE LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3900 8420 3904 8389 3886 8370 3852 8394
      3852 8420

HATZOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
844 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

OHZ063-064-073-080-220145-
HIGHLAND OH-ROSS OH-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY OH-
844 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN PICKAWAY...SOUTHEASTERN
FAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN ROSS AND NORTHEASTERN HIGHLAND COUNTIES
THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

AT 840 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EAST
MONROE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...GREENFIELD...NEW
HOLLAND AND WILLIAMSPORT.

ALSO...NEW MARTINSBURG...ROCK MILLS...GOOD HOPE...CLARKSBURG...
PANCOASTBURG...DEER CREEK LAKE AND PICKAWAY COUNTY AIRPORT ARE NEAR
THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3925 8348 3937 8359 3968 8321 3951 8297

HATZOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
921 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

OHZ063-064-073-080-220215-
HIGHLAND OH-ROSS OH-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY OH-
921 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PICKAWAY...EASTERN
FAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN ROSS AND NORTHEASTERN HIGHLAND COUNTIES
THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

AT 918 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PAINT
CREEK STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...GREENFIELD...WASHINGTON
COURT HOUSE...BLOOMINGBURG AND NEW HOLLAND.

ALSO...EAST MONROE...NEW MARTINSBURG...STAUNTON...SOUTH SALEM...ROCK
MILLS...GOOD HOPE...FRANKFORT AND MADISON MILLS ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3916 8352 3932 8364 3937 8360 3937 8359
      3939 8359 3967 8335 3943 8309

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1007 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST UNION              38.79N 83.54W
05/21/2010                   ADAMS              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN WEST UNION.

&&

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