Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING
TONIGHT...THEN CHANCES AGAIN FOR TUE AND WED.

TONIGHT-MON:
MCV ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS SRN KS...WITH EVEN A FEW STORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE OK
BORDER...AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONG
CONVECTION. THIS MCV IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SWINGING
ACROSS NW KS.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUING
TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS KS TONIGHT...THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LINGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE THE HIGHEST FOR MOST
OF SRN KS AS MCV MOVES ACROSS THIS AREA...WHERE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.

SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO WEAKEN ACROSS ERN KS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
CLEARING ACTUALLY POSSIBLE IN WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS CLEARING COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BY MON MORNING.

MON NIGHT:
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KS LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...FOR A
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING.  GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...WHILE THE NAM/WRF AND ECMWF ARENT AS
CONFIDENT IN THIS DEVELOPING. IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CAN GET
GOING...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KS
EARLY ON TUE.  SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP GOING IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN
CASE THIS DOES DEVELOP.

TUE-WED:
MODELS ARE ALSO COMING AROUND TO A SOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE IN THE
SRN ROCKIES UNDERCUTTING A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BEGINNING ON TUE INTO WED. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS AGREE IN KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP
CHANCES WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA UNTIL MAINLY TUES NIGHT INTO
WED.  INTERESTING SET UP FOR WED AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT WARM ADVECTION AND
ELEVATED BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED ACROSS SRN KS...FOR
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN FOR WED.
BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE BORDER FOR A
SEVERE CHANCE...BUT  ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR SUGGESTS
A STRONG STORM CHANCE AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WED FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL
CHANCE IN SRN KS.

THU-SAT:
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THU
NIGHT...AS THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. WILL
KEEP SOME MINOR POPS IN FOR THU AFTERNOON...AS SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES EAST.  RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND EVENTUALLY
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AND DRY PERIOD FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOW THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER EXTREME NW KS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE SW PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF DRIER
AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCNU...ALL SITES
HAVE CLIMBED TO ABOVE IFR CIGS WHICH HAS BEEN AIDED BY THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SE KS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST WINDS WILL
FLIP BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO
SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS RESULTING IN A RETURN TO IFR CIGS.
CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THESE LOWER CIGS FOR
CENTRAL KS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  71  53  69 /  40  10  30  20
HUTCHINSON      51  72  52  69 /  30  10  30  20
NEWTON          52  70  52  69 /  30  10  20  20
ELDORADO        52  70  51  70 /  40  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  72  52  70 /  50  10  20  30
RUSSELL         49  72  52  69 /  20  10  30  20
GREAT BEND      50  72  53  68 /  20  10  30  20
SALINA          51  71  51  71 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       51  71  51  70 /  20  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     54  71  52  70 /  40  10  10  20
CHANUTE         53  70  51  69 /  40  10  10  20
IOLA            53  70  51  69 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    54  71  52  69 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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