Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

.UPDATE...

MESOSCALE UPDATE:

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE TORNADO THREAT ON THE
WANE. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EAST OF I-35 HAVE LIMITED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. CURRENT MOST UNSTABLE PARCEL CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY IS 2000-3000 J/KILOGRAM EAST OF I-35. BASED ON
PROFILER/VWP MID LEVEL SHEAR... WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY BE NICKLE-
DIME HAIL UNLESS STORMS ARE ROTATING. MAIN ISSUE IS STORMS ROUGHLY
EAST OF I-35 IS UNDISTURBED AIR. BELIEVE THESE STORMS ARE
ELEVATED. WILL CONTINUE THE TORNADO WATCH AS IS FOR THE
MOMENT...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE A REPLACE OR TRANSITION TO SEVERE.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE THE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TONIGHT. THINKING THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FOR KSLN-KICT-KHUT-
KCNU. TORNADO THREAT IS DWINDLING...BUT THINKING STRONGEST CORES
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...IFR/MVFR CIGS (WITH POCKETS
OF LIFR CIGS) WILL AFFECT ALL LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

ADK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT INTO
THU MORNING.

SYNOPSIS:
STRONG SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KSLN TO NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE AND IS NOW STARTING TO VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST. STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE HAS FINALLY RESULTED IN RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING STORMS OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE
SHORTWAVE IS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CO/WY AND IS PUSHING VERY SLOWLY
EAST. A PV ANOMALY LOBE IS NOW ROTATING SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER WESTERN NM.

TONIGHT:
BY 00Z EXPECTING STORMS TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST. NOT TOO SURE HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF ISOLATED
STORMS THERE WILL BE AND THUS FEEL MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. DEEP SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT WILL ONLY ADD TO THE LACK OF ISO CELLS THAT WOULD BE ABLE TO
MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL CAPE FEEL THE BEST
TOR THREAT WOULD BE AS THE STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN INGEST SOME LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
ALONG THE FRONT. SO MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL
AND FLOODING WITH THE THREAT OF LONGER TRACK TORS PRETTY LOW.

ONE OF THE BIG CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS IS HOW FAR WEST
THE FRONT ENDED UP. THIS WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR SE KS TO
EXPERIENCE SVR STORMS PRIOR TO 06Z...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR THE ICT AREA TO EXPERIENCE A STORM EARLY THIS EVENING.

THU-FRI:
WILL GO WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN
THE TREND AND THUS BY 12Z THU THE FRONT WILL STILL BE LINGERING
AROUND SE KS WHICH SOME CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG IT. MEANWHILE
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER-IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR THU. BY 06Z FRI THE PRECIP WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

SAT-WED:
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND OUT
INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE FRI NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS MOISTURE WILL
AGAIN SURGE NORTH AND WILL SPREAD PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SW TO NE STARTING FRI NIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO
GET WET FOR SAT INTO SUN. GIVEN LACK OF UPPER WINDS AND WELL DEFINED
INITIATING BOUNDARY...FEEL CONFIDENT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODE IS
NOT ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. FEEL THE MAIN THREAT MAYBE FLOODING. BY
MON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON LIFTING THE SHORTWAVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO PUSH PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE AFTER THE MON
TIME FRAME DECREASES AS THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO VARY ON THEIR
SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND AS SOME RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA.

LAWSON

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM KPTT TO KSLN. IT HAS BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TONIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT...MEANING THAT
STORMS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

KSLN-KRSL ARE NOT IN THE TSRA THREAT. THEY WILL REMAIN AROUND 2SM
BR WITH CIGS BETWEEN 003 AND 010 FEET WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
GUIDANCE WANTS TO MOVE THIS OUT EARLIER TONIGHT...BUT THINK THIS
WILL LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK.

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THE REMAINING TAF SITES
/KHUT/KICT/KCNU/ WILL EVENTUALLY EXPERIENCE THESE CONDITIONS.
UNTIL THEN...THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN CHANCE THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES BEING A THREAT. RIGHT
NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WHERE WE DID NOT PUT TSRA IN
THE TAF...ONLY WENT WITH CB IN THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR NOW AND WILL
UPDATE IS UNCERTAINTY DECREASES.

KRC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  66  47  73 /  90  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      42  65  45  72 /  60  20  10  10
NEWTON          45  65  46  73 /  90  20  10  10
ELDORADO        47  65  47  73 /  90  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  66  48  73 /  90  30  10  10
RUSSELL         39  64  42  71 /  40  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      40  64  42  71 /  40  10   0  10
SALINA          41  65  46  72 /  50  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       42  65  45  72 /  60  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  64  49  74 /  80  70  20  10
CHANUTE         55  65  48  74 /  80  60  20  10
IOLA            54  65  48  74 /  80  60  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  64  49  74 /  80  70  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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