Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
318 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT INTO
THU MORNING.

SYNOPSIS:
STRONG SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KSLN TO NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE AND IS NOW STARTING TO VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST. STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE HAS FINALLY RESULTED IN RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING STORMS OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE
SHORTWAVE IS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CO/WY AND IS PUSHING VERY SLOWLY
EAST. A PV ANOMALY LOBE IS NOW ROTATING SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER WESTERN NM.

TONIGHT:
BY 00Z EXPECTING STORMS TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST. NOT TOO SURE HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF ISOLATED
STORMS THERE WILL BE AND THUS FEEL MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. DEEP SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT WILL ONLY ADD TO THE LACK OF ISO CELLS THAT WOULD BE ABLE TO
MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL CAPE FEEL THE BEST
TOR THREAT WOULD BE AS THE STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN INGEST SOME LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
ALONG THE FRONT. SO MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL
AND FLOODING WITH THE THREAT OF LONGER TRACK TORS PRETTY LOW.

ONE OF THE BIG CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS IS HOW FAR WEST
THE FRONT ENDED UP. THIS WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR SE KS TO
EXPERIENCE SVR STORMS PRIOR TO 06Z...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR THE ICT AREA TO EXPERIENCE A STORM EARLY THIS EVENING.

THU-FRI:
WILL GO WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN
THE TREND AND THUS BY 12Z THU THE FRONT WILL STILL BE LINGERING
AROUND SE KS WHICH SOME CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG IT. MEANWHILE
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER-IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR THU. BY 06Z FRI THE PRECIP WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

SAT-WED:
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND OUT
INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE FRI NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS MOISTURE WILL
AGAIN SURGE NORTH AND WILL SPREAD PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SW TO NE STARTING FRI NIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO
GET WET FOR SAT INTO SUN. GIVEN LACK OF UPPER WINDS AND WELL DEFINED
INITIATING BOUNDARY...FEEL CONFIDENT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODE IS
NOT ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. FEEL THE MAIN THREAT MAYBE FLOODING. BY
MON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON LIFTING THE SHORTWAVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO PUSH PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE AFTER THE MON
TIME FRAME DECREASES AS THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO VARY ON THEIR
SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND AS SOME RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM KPTT TO KSLN. IT HAS BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TONIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT...MEANING THAT
STORMS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

KSLN-KRST ARE NOT IN THE TSRA THREAT. THEY WILL REMAIN AROUND 2SM
BR WITH CIGS BETWEEN 003 AND 010 FEET WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
GUIDANCE WANTS TO MOVE THIS OUT EARLIER TONIGHT...BUT THINK THIS
WILL LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK.

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THE REMAINING TAF SITES
/KHUT/KICT/KCNU/ WILL EVENTUALLY EXPERIENCE THESE CONDITIONS.
UNTIL THEN...THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN CHANCE THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES BEING A THREAT. RIGHT
NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WHERE WE DID NOT PUT TSRA IN
THE TAF...ONLY WENT WITH CB IN THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR NOW AND WILL
UPDATE IS UNCERTAINTY DECREASES.

KRC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  65  47  73 /  60  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      42  64  45  72 /  50  20  10  10
NEWTON          45  65  46  73 /  60  20  10  10
ELDORADO        47  65  47  73 /  80  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  65  48  73 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         39  63  42  71 /  20  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      40  63  42  71 /  20  10   0  10
SALINA          41  65  46  72 /  40  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       42  65  45  72 /  50  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     56  63  49  74 /  90  70  20  10
CHANUTE         55  65  48  74 /  80  60  20  10
IOLA            55  65  48  74 /  80  60  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    56  64  49  74 /  90  70  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
450 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-131000-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
450 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE HOWEVER A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM
TODAY...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             8 W KINGMAN             37.65N 98.26W
05/12/2010  E1.00 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JAS