Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1215 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.UPDATE...

ISSUED ANOTHER UPDATE TO REFLECT ISSUANCE OF SVR #110 WITH THE
CORRESPONDING CHANGES TO POPS/WX/QPF GRIDS. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010/

UPDATE...

REST OF TONIGHT:
HAD TO EXTEND WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL PREVIOUSLY ADVISED COUNTIES
TIL 5 AM CDT. JUST AS THE WIND ADVISORY WAS BEING PROCESSED THE
IDEA OF A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS CONSIDERED AS NON-THUNDERSTORM
GUSTS HAVE REACHED 55 MPH IN PARTS OF SC KS. HOWEVER...EXPECT SUCH
WINDS TO BE OF A TRANSIENT NATURE SO WILL STICK WITH THE WIND
ADVISORY ROUTE FOR TIME BEING.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
NO DOUBT THERE ARE 2 MAJOR CONCERNS WITH THE 30/06Z TAF ISSUANCE:
1) SEVERE TSRA OVER PRIMARILY CNTRL KS & 2) VERY STRONG SLY WINDS
OF 30-40KTS THAT'LL WHIP ACROSS MOST AREAS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IN THE LATTER CASE IS KRSL WHERE THE COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE TERMINAL. OVERALL FORECAST STRATEGY IS
UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER ISSUANCES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010/

UPDATE...
COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING NW CORRIDOR OF KICT COUNTRY THIS EVENING
WITH SVR TSRA ERUPTING IN RESPONSE TO RETREATING DRY LINE. WITH
ECHO-TRAINING ALREADY IN PROGRESS FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY
BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN. KRSL MEASURED 0.53 INCH IN 33 MINS
FROM 820-853PM CDT. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS CONSIDERABLY OVER CNTRL KS
FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH 60-70% ASSIGNED REFLECTIVE OF COLD
FRONTAL POSITIONING. WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
SC & SE KS AS WELL AS THE SE HALF OF CNTRL KS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
EXTENSION. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
IMMEDIATE FOCUS IS ON SLY WINDS OF 22-30KTS OVER MOST TERMINALS
WITH KRSL THE SOLE EXCEPTION DUE NO DOUBT TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
SE-MOVG COLD FRONT. AT 29/23Z THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR
KAUH SW TO BETWEEN KHYS & KRSL TO JUST NW OF KGCK. AS COLD FRONT
VENTURES FURTHER SE INTO A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT EXPECT TSRA TO
INCREASE OVER CNTRL & SC KS WHERE MVFR CIGS & VSBYS ARE LIKELY.
LOCALIZED IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIEST SHRA WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUCH VSBYS OCCURRING OVER KSLN FROM 30/09Z-30/15Z.
TSRA NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SC KS TIL ~30/11Z WHEN THE FRONT SHOULD
DECELERATE & PERHAPS STALL AS PRIMARY UPR-DECK SHORT WAVE SCOOTS
NE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY:
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS...AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A LINE OF CUMULUS
HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MID-LEVEL FORCING AS WELL AS SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THE
SURFACE FRONT IS STILL BACK ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...WEST OF HILL
CITY AND DODGE CITY. SURFACE WINDS ARE QUITE STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT VERY
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH TO
KEEP A WIND ADVISORY OUT...SO WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD
BET WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AFFECTING MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FOR THIS PERIOD.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY:
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION
INTO MONDAY...KEEPING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THIS TIME. THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW COMES THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD DRY...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD VERY
WELL BE NEEDED AS TIME GETS CLOSER.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GO FROM THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE ON TAP AT
THIS POINT.

SCHRECK

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY...AND T-STORM CHANCES
MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CNU/HUT/ICT WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS PM/EVE FROM
STRONG 850 WINDS AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTS OF 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE AT THOSE SITES. SCT STRONG T-STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL KS THIS EVE IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
BACK NWWRD. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO TS AT RSL AND SLN FOR MID-LATE
EVENING AS A RESULT. CONVECTION CHANCES MUCH LESSER FURTHER SOUTH.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  64  47  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      46  66  45  73 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          48  62  46  71 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        49  63  47  71 /  10  10  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  65  48  72 /  10  10  20  10
RUSSELL         38  67  43  69 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      39  65  43  70 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          41  68  46  72 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       45  66  45  71 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     50  73  51  74 /  20  20  40  10
CHANUTE         48  71  49  73 /  20  20  30  10
IOLA            49  70  49  72 /  30  20  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    50  72  49  74 /  20  20  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KSZ049>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
415 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
415 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. SEE THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL
TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA
IS ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HUTCHINSON TO MARION. STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT
OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SOME OF THESE MAY BE SEVERE...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCED BY THE
AMOUNT OF STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.

SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
SATURDAY EVENING COULD BE STRONG...WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE MONITOR LATER OUTLOOKS FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM HUTCHINSON TO MARION.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK/JMC/HOWERTON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1202 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     HAIL             4 W GYPSUM              38.71N 97.50W
04/29/2010  E0.25 INCH       SALINE             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1205 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 PM     TSTM WND GST     MCPHERSON               38.37N 97.66W
04/29/2010  E58.00 MPH       MCPHERSON          KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FROM THE KSN-TV WEATHERLAB NETWORK.

&&

BDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1221 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

KSZ052-068-069-083-091>093-300615-
BUTLER-COWLEY-HARPER-HARVEY-MARION-SEDGWICK-SUMNER-
1221 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTLER...COWLEY...HARPER...HARVEY...MARION...
SEDGWICK AND SUMNER COUNTIES...

VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 MPH
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS...AND WILL AT TIMES EXCEED 60 MPH. THIS IS DUE TO INFLOW
WINDS INTO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 2 AM.

KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1226 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     HAIL             1 N SYLVIA              37.97N 98.41W
04/30/2010  E0.88 INCH       RENO               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1228 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 AM     HAIL             PLEVNA                  37.97N 98.31W
04/30/2010  E1.00 INCH       RENO               KS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BDK