Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010

.UPDATE...

MESOSCALE UPDATE:
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR AT 2300 UTC SUGGEST DRYLINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR EWK TO JUST NORTHWEST OF ANTHONY...WITH FRONT FROM NEAR
SLN-PTT. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG-EAST OF A
LINE FROM MARION TO WELLINGTON. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE
SLIM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF EWK-WELLINGTON LINE. AT THIS
POINT...TORNADO THREAT IS HIGHEST WHERE EITHER SURFACE WINDS BACK
AFTER SUNSET OR OUTFLOW LOCALLY BACKS SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY
ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
STRONG WINDS. HAIL THREAT MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO MIDDLE LEVEL
ROTATING STORMS BASED ON WIND PROFILES. TRAINING ECHOES/SLOW
MOVEMENT OF FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED FLOODING IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

ISOLATED STORM THREAT AT KICT WITH KCNU BEING MORE LIKELY LATER
THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35
LATE TONIGHT PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. DRY AIRMASS ON
SAT SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AT ALL SITE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGE: THE MOST DIFFICULT PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
CHANCES OF POPS FOR NEXT WEEK AS VARYING MODELS CONTINUE ON AND OFF
CHANCES THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD WITH VARIATIONS IN BOTH LOCATION AND
TIMING. MODELS ARE HINTING FOR A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES TO IMPACT THE
AREA THUS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE BEST CHANCES.
OTHERWISE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TIME PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT:A DEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THERE IS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS AN
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT SLIDING ACROSS KANSAS WHICH WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NIGHT. A DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH
POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
THERE IS A GOOD POOL OF MOISTURE THAT HAS MAINTAINED IN THE AREA
FOLLOWING THE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST BELOW 2 INCHES OFF THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS ARE SHOWING
SIMILAR VALUES. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS WELL. THE PREVIOUSLY STRONG CAP IS GRADUALLY
BREAKING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. TRIGGER WILL BE OFF THE TRIPLE
POINT BUT DEPENDS ON THE PUSH OF THE COOL AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXPECT IT TO BE THROUGH
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS DECIDED TO
INCREASE DAYTIME TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR SUNDAY
AND DECREASED OVERNIGHT TEMPS FOR THE SAME AREA WITH CLOUD COVER NOT
MOVING IN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY THRU FRIDAY:
AT 500MB THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN INTO MID
NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE INFLUENCE OF A
TROUGH IS MORE PRONOUNCED BY THE ECMWF. MODEL DISCREPANCIES COVER
MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THUS LEADING TO CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT
TUESDAY COULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE BASED ON MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS STILL TO
BE DETERMINED. THERE WERE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO INCREASE POPS
AS MODELS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEIR RUNS...OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST WAS GIVEN VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

VP

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN KS...THROUGH
CENTRAL KS...INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AFFECTING MAINLY KICT-KCNU AFTER
3 PM. SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OPTED TO GO ONLY VCTS
FOR NOW...AND WILL WAIT UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO INSERT
TEMPO GROUPS. LATER TONIGHT IN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MAINLY
KHUT-KICT-KCNU. NAM MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING THESE
LOW CLOUDS...SO BACKED OFF SOME FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  83  60  86 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      63  83  59  86 /  20   0   0  10
NEWTON          65  82  59  85 /  30   0   0  10
ELDORADO        67  82  59  85 /  50   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  85  60  86 /  50  10   0  10
RUSSELL         57  82  56  87 /  10   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      58  83  57  87 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          61  82  57  85 /  20   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       62  82  58  86 /  20   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  84  59  85 /  60  10   0  10
CHANUTE         70  82  58  84 /  70  10   0  10
IOLA            69  81  57  83 /  70   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  83  59  84 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
537 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-112245-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
537 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAT INDICES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 106 DEGREES
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AROUND 70 MPH...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AFTER 6 PM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AREAS AT GREATEST
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EAST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM SALINA TO HUTCHINSON TO KINGMAN. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FINALLY EXITING SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE ARE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND
WINDS NEAR 50 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AFTER 6 PM SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM SALINA TO HUTCHINSON TO KINGMAN.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES/ADK/VP

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