Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
626 PM CDT WED SEP 1 2010

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ONE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS EXITED SERN KS AND COOLER MORE
STABLE OUTFLOW SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA FREE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CNTRL KS THIS EVENING IN WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING 35KT SWRLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
PROGGED TO VEER LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY REMNANT TS ACTIVITY
SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS/SERN KS. SCT-BKN IFR CLOUDS COULD
DEVELOP NEAR I-70 EARLY THURS AM GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/LIGHT SERLY WIND. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL KS
LATE THURS AM...THEN SWEEPING THRU S-CNTRL/SERN KS THURS PM.
DEVELOPING STRONG INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND SOME UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCT TS IN THE PM HOURS IN
S-CNTRL/SERN KS.

JMC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED SEP 1 2010/

DISCUSSION...

THROUGH TONIGHT:

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

AS OF 19Z...CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING MOVED OFF TO THE EAST
FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...STORMS REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. THE CONVECTION FROM THIS
MORNING HAS CAUSED A RATHER STRONG COLD POOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S. THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS REACHED THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS MODEST AT BEST. STORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT THEY ARE WEAK...SHORT
LIVED...AND POSE LITTLE THREAT AT THIS TIME TO BECOME SEVERE.

THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF FAVORABLE MLCAPES /2500
J/KG/ AND EFFECT SHEAR /35KTS/ FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID...NEED TO GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND AT
THIS TIME...THAT IS THE LIMITING FACTOR.

SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE
WIND DAMAGE...A SMALL CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL. THE WAY THINGS MAY
PLAY OUT IS THAT CONVECTION GET MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES THIS EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS...WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT A FLOODING SITUATION OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...SO ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THURSDAY:

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CONVECTION. ONCE THE STORMS FROM
TONIGHT DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS GOOD
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD
BE FAST MOVERS AND COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AMOUNT OF
CONVERGENCE/FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND FAVORABLE SHEAR BUOYANCY
COMBINATIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE CERTAINTY OF THIS REPRESENTED BY THE SREF. CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE IS RATHER MODERATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

FSU CONFIDENCE CHARTS SHOWING HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW
VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY LATE WEEK AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP. HIGHS LATE WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 80S
AND RETURNS TO THE 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  88  57  81 /  50  40  10   0
HUTCHINSON      69  86  55  81 /  50  30   0   0
NEWTON          72  85  55  80 /  50  40   0   0
ELDORADO        71  87  55  80 /  60  50  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  92  58  81 /  70  60  20   0
RUSSELL         67  82  49  81 /  40  20   0   0
GREAT BEND      66  81  50  81 /  40  20   0   0
SALINA          70  82  54  80 /  50  30   0   0
MCPHERSON       70  84  54  80 /  50  30   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     73  92  59  82 / 100  80  40   0
CHANUTE         71  90  56  82 /  80  80  20   0
IOLA            71  89  56  82 /  70  80  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    72  91  58  82 / 100  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KSZ071-072-095-096-099-
100.

&&

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