Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN HEAT HEADLINES THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.

SYNOPSIS:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE PIECE
OF UPPER ENERGY THAT WAS ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY IS NOW TRACKING OVER NORTHEAST KS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NEAR KRSL TO
BETWEEN KDDC AND KPTT.

TONIGHT-WED:
JUST LIKE YESTERDAY'S FORECAST...MUCH OF THE FIRST PERIOD WILL DEPEND
ON HOW STORMS BEHAVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK FRONT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME UNCAPPED. FIRST GUESS IS THAT
MOST OF THE STORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS THAT AFTER 06Z AN AREA OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
KS AND SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS TIME FEEL THAT IF ANY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION DEVELOPS IT WOULD
BE ISO-SCT IN NATURE AND WILL THEREFORE NOT HIT PRECIP CHANCES TOO
HARD.

VERY LITTLE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN FOR WED AS
THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH. WILL LINGER
SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES OVER SE KS WED MORNING FOR ANY LEFT OVER
LATE NIGHT CONVECTION. TEMPS ON WED ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR
OR EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. GIVEN CURRENT HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES FOR WED STILL LOOK GOOD.

THU-FRI:
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CONUS WILL START TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST ON
THU WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MAKES ITS JOURNEY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE HEAT WILL STILL BE ON IN OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY WITH 100+ TEMPS. GIVEN THE LACK
OF MIXING TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TO COVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS
FOR THU. BY FRI MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO NEAR KDDC. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THERE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...SOME
OF WHICH MAY CLIP OUR CENTRAL KS COUNTIES FRI MORNING. BY FRI
AFTERNOON THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KSLN TO NORTH OF KHUT
WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS PERCOLATING ALONG IT.
MEANWHILE...WITH THE FRONT STILL TO THE NORTH...SE KS WILL CONTINUE
TO BAKE AND WILL THEREFORE EXTEND THE HEAT HEADLINES THROUGH FRI FOR
SE KS.

AT THIS TIME WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE IN THE FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

SAT-TUE:
IT APPEARS WE WILL FINALLY SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE MUCH WELCOMED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE'LL BE LOOKING AT TEMPS MUCH CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THESE PERIODS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG THE KS-OK BORDER WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN FRONTAL POSITION WILL NOT HIT PRECIP CHANCES
TOO HARD YET.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
A SURFACE FRONT IS RIGHT AROUND KHYS AND IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR KRSL...BUT HAVE
BEEN VERY LIGHT. STILL NOT CONFIDENT IN THUNDERSTORMS HITTING THE
TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WILL KEEP CB MENTIONED
BUT NO TSRA. ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE POSSIBLE
AS WELL...AT LEAST CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT CB MENTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

SCHRECK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78 103  77 104 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      77 103  76 103 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          78 103  77 102 /  20  20  10  10
ELDORADO        78 103  77 102 /  10  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   78 103  77 104 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         73 102  73 103 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      73 102  74 104 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          77 102  77 101 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       77 103  77 102 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     77 101  78 101 /  10  20  10  10
CHANUTE         77 100  77 101 /  10  20  10  10
IOLA            77 100  77 101 /  10  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    77 101  78 101 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ052-053-
068-069-082-083-091>093.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-
033-047-048-050.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ049-051-
067.

&&

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