Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES (POSSIBLE SEVERE)
THIS EVENING...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCES AFTER THIS FOR SUN-TUE.

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT:
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM MKC/EMP TO JUST NORTH OF
ICT TO DDC WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000 J/KG. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ANYTIME THIS AFTERNOON
SO...WITH MULTICELL STORMS THE MAIN STORM MODE AS BULK SHEAR IS ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS. EVEN WITH THE MEAGER SHEAR...VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AS INVERTED-V
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...OR POSSIBLY SOME
QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BUT WANE SOME
AFTER SUNSET...AS MAX HEATING ENDS. BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT.
BIGGEST THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO MORE OF A HEAVY
RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT...AS LACK OF MUCH FORWARD
PROGRESSION TO THE CONVECTION AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL LEAD TO
TRAINING STORMS AND POSSIBLE BACKBUILDING OF THE CONVECTION.  NOT
EXPECTING AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS)TO DEVELOP GIVEN SLOW
PROPAGATION...BUT MORE OF A FESTERING LINE OF STORMS.

SUN-MON:
WILL CERTAINLY SEE CONVECTION FESTER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN KS...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NRN OK. SO WILL
KEEP A SOLID CHANCE POP GOING FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUN. NOT TOO
CERTAIN IN HOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL PLAY OUT AS REMNANTS FROM TD
BONNIE MOVE INTO ARK AND POSSIBLY ERN OK. CONVERGENCE AND  INCREASED
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW POP FOR THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MON IN
SOUTHEAST KS...WHERE CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE THE WEAKEST.

TUE-WED:
SOME UNCERTAINLY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY OUT. WITH
POSSIBLE TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL LAYING AROUND ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF KS INTO MO. NOT MUCH ON THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE ANY
KIND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CHANCES...BUT AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
PROBABLY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCE ALONG OR
EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED...SO WILL KEEP A LOW POP GOING FOR NOW. BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PLAYING OUT IS LOW...GIVEN MORE RAPID PROGRESSION OF TD BONNIE
REMNANTS TO THE NORTH AND NW.

REST OF THE EXTENDED:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING AROUND TO THE CONCLUSION OF
RETROGRADING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL MEAN
WARMER TEMPS RETURN AND FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...AS THIS SLOWER SOLUTION WILL KEEP ANY RELEVANT WEATHER
CONCERNS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

KETCHAM

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

NO DOUBT MAJOR CONCERN IS +TSRA THAT'LL BREAK OUT OVER MUCH OF KS
THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT...DRAPED IN NE-SW MANNER
ACROSS CNTRL KS AT 17Z...CONTINUE TO SAG SE TOWARD SC KS. WITH 91
OCTANE FUEL ENTRNCHED OVER MOST AREAS...TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL NO DOUBT PRODUCE ++RA THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCALIZED
IFR CIGS & VSBYS. AT 24/17Z 2 AREAS OF +TSRA HAD BROKEN OUT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT: ONE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO EXTREME NW OK AND THE
THE 2ND FROM NC KS TO FAR SE NEBRASKA. THE TSRA OCCURRING OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE & NW OK HAS BEEN MORE EXPLOSIVE AS IT HAS OCCURRED IN
REGION OF STRONGER LWR-DECK CONVERGENCE. THE SE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WITH A MODEST SW MID-LVL
FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE AREA ECHO-TRAINING IS LIKELY. TRANSLATION
IS THAT THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR MANY AREAS (ESPECIALLY
KICT...KHUT & KCNU) TO EXPERIENCE PROLONGED PERIODS OF +TSRA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE JUST ASSIGNED "VCTS"
TO KICT & KHUT AS SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING DIFFICULT
TIME PIN-POINTING ARRIVAL TIMES OF THE +TSRA. UPDATES WILL
CERTAINLY BE ISSUED AS SOON AS THE LOCATIONS & ARRIVAL TIMES OF
THE TSRA COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. ~ES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  89  71  91 /  60  40  30  20
HUTCHINSON      66  88  69  90 /  50  40  30  20
NEWTON          66  88  70  90 /  60  40  20  20
ELDORADO        69  89  69  90 /  60  40  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  91  71  91 /  50  40  30  20
RUSSELL         66  86  67  88 /  30  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      66  88  68  89 /  40  30  30  20
SALINA          70  88  69  89 /  40  20  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  88  69  89 /  50  30  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     76  91  71  90 /  50  40  30  20
CHANUTE         72  89  69  89 /  60  40  20  20
IOLA            71  89  69  89 /  60  40  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    74  90  70  90 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

KSZ091-242115-
HARPER-
350 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARPER COUNTY...

AT 347 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALDRON...OR 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ANTHONY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

BILLINGS