Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
353 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MOST OF KICT COUNTRY IS SPENDING ANOTHER AFTERNOON IN A SAUNA WITH TEMPS
IN MID-UPR 90S & DWPTS GENERALLY IN MID-UPR 70S SENDING HEAT INDICES TO
BETWEEN 105 & 110F ACROSS SC & SE KS. AS SUCH IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH TMOWRROW EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-WED NIGHT:
PAID VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO DWPTS AS THIS PARAMETER WILL NO DOUBT PLAY
VITAL ROLE WITH HEAT INDICES. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN SOME
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST 2 RUNS WITH RESPECT TO ACCURACY...IT HAS STILL
BEEN A BIT CONSERVATIVE (ESPECIALLY IN SE KS WHERE CURRENT DWPTS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING 4-5F HIGHER THAN MOS.) AS SUCH...AFTER COORDINATION HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR SE KS TIL 8 PM CDT WED &
EXTENDED IT W ACROSS ALL OF SC KS THAT WOULD INCLUDE CHASE & MARION
COUNTIES AS WELL. A 2ND MAJOR FOCUS IS ON TSRA POTENTIAL (ESPECIALLY IN
CNTRL KS WHERE NO DOUBT CLOSER TO A COLD FRONT THAT'LL TAKE ON A MORE
W-E ORIENTATION AS IT STALLS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS THE PARRENT MID
LVL SHORTWAVE SCOOTS E FROM NEBRASKA...ACROSS IA...TO THE MID/UPR MS
VALLEY. AS THE LATTER FEATURE DEPARTS THE IMMEDIATE KS NEIGHBORHOOD THE
FRONT SHOULD RETREAT N (OBVIOUSLY AS A WARM FRONT) WED EVENING. WITH AN
OBVIOUSLY VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT
TSRA TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE & INTENSITY THIS EVENING & OVERNIGHT.
(ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL KS WHERE THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACHIEVE SEVERITY WITH
QUARTER-SIZED HAIL & GUSTS ~60MPH ARE BOTH POSSIBLE. WITH SUCH HIGH
OCTANE FUEL ENTRNCHED OVER THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE WATERS
OF 2-2.25 INCHES VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE CERTAINLY LIKELY. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE +TSRA TONIGHT IS SITUATED ALONG & JUST N-NE OF KICT
PREMISES WHERE SVR #505 IS IN EFFECT TIL 11 PM CDT. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
N WED & WED NGT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT FURTHER
N ACROSS NEBRASKA & IA.

REST OF THE WORK-WEEK:
HOT...HUMID & OPPRESSIVE WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER ALL AREAS AS LARGE &
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE U.S. AS
SUCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR EXCEESIVE HEAT (ESPECIALLY IF
MODEL DWPT GUIDANCE CONTINUES IT'S CONSERVATIVE TREND.)

NEXT WEEKEND:
TSRA SHOULD RETURN TO THE NEIGHBORHOOD (ESPECIALLY CNTRL KS) AS A 2ND
MID-UPR SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE IN A MANENR SIMILAR TO THIS
EVENING'S...SCOOTING E/SE ACROSS NEBRASKA...IA & NRN MO. THE FEATURE MAY
CLIP NRN KS AS WELL. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL IN A
W-E MANNER AS IT SAGS ACROSS CNTRL KS SAT AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS CNTRL KS TO 20-30% SAT & SAT NGT. IT'LL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THESE LATER PERIODS AN OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

STEADY STREAM OF DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECASTS CONTINUE. ELEVATED
STORMS CONTINUE TO BUBBLE JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY
ACROS NORTHERN KS. SUSPECT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT
SOUTH PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE STORMS MAY GET CLOSE TO
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BASED ON
FORECAST CINH...CURRENT THOUGHT IS FOR COVERAGE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WANE
BY LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE MOST LOCATIONS AFTER
SUNSET AND PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW. WITH THUNDERSTORMS/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES IN THE VICINITY OF KRSL/KSLN...WINDS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
CHALLENGE. WHILE PREDOMINATELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT KRSL/KSLN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WINDS COULD GET QUITE GUSTY IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  97  77  98 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      76  98  76  99 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          76  97  77  98 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        76  96  76  97 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  97  77  97 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         74  98  76 100 /  30  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      75  98  75 100 /  30  10  10  10
SALINA          75  97  77  99 /  40  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       76  97  77  99 /  30  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  95  76  96 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  95  76  96 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            75  95  76  96 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    76  95  76  96 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
418 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-210930-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
418 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR DETAILS. HEAT INDICES OF
100 TO 105 ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL LINGER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
359 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

KSZ032-047-202130-
BARTON-RUSSELL-
359 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARTON AND RUSSELL COUNTIES...

AT 352 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF GALATIA TO ALBERT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DARMOFAL

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