Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
639 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AN MCS CLUSTER OVER E-CNTRL/SERN KS LATE THIS PM WILL PUSH EWD OUT
OF AREA BY 06Z AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER NEBRASKA/KANSAS TRANSLATES
EWD. OTHER ISOLD TS OVER NWRN KS AND NWRN OK MAY PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT 03-05Z WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
A MID-UPR JET STREAK. ONLY TAF SITE WITH TS MENTION ATTM WILL BE
CNU. MVFR/IFR BR POSSIBLE EARLY TUES AM ALONG/JUST NORTH OF W-E
BOUNDARY OVER SRN KS. THIS COULD AFFECT SEVERAL OF OUR TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RSL. DEVELOPING LEE TROF TUESDAY WILL YIELD
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AREA WIDE...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
EXPECTED IN CENTRAL/S-CNTRL KS MIDDAY INTO EARLY EVE.

JMC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT:
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
INTERMITTENT SEVERE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN THREAT. BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH...BUT GIVEN LIMITED TEMPORAL THREAT FOR
MOST THE AREA...AND IMPACT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...OPTED NOT TO.
DECENT CAPE AND CONVERGENCE ON BOUNDARY WILL KEEP STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHEAST KS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUE-WED:
HOT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA. HAVE HEDGED ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT COPIOUS RAINFALL...HOWEVER MUCH
OF THE INSOLATION WILL BE ADDING HUMIDITY VIA EVAPORATION AND HEAT
INDICES WILL FLIRT WITH 105 ALONG OK BORDER ON TUE AND LIKELY
REACH CRITERIA ALONG/EAST OF I-35 ON WED. CAN FINE TUE THAT WITH
ADVISORY AS EVENT GETS A BIT CLOSER AND CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES/
DEW POINTS INCREASES. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS AROUND RSL SHOULD
OFFSET HIGHER TEMPERATURES THERE WHERE RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN AS
PLENTIFUL.

THU:
ANOTHER WARM DAY AHEAD OF NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. APPEARS
LATEST GUIDANCE PUSHES FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL AFTER
0000 UTC...SO NIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL
KS. DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THU NIGHT WITH RIPPLE IN FLOW
AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEEM
SOME OUTFLOW PUSH INTO AT LEAST PART OF CENTRAL KS THU NIGHT.

FRI-MON:
TOUGH BUT TYPICAL SUMMER FORECAST. APPEARS THAT WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BE MEANDERING AROUND NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. NOT CONVINCED THAT SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF I-70...BUT CERTAINLY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD. WHICH
NIGHT OR NIGHTS THIS MIGHT HAPPEN WOULD JUST BE A GUESS AT THIS
POINT. PERFECT 0000 UTC MODEL PROGNOSTICS WOULD SUGGEST THU NIGHT
WITH RIPPLE IN UPPER FLOW...BUT STORMS ON HIGH PLAINS COULD ROLL
DOWNHILL INTO CENTRAL KS ANY NIGHT. HEAT INDICES WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH A LOT
RIDING ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN/CLOUDS IMPACTINGS TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS. -HOWERTON

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING IFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR/VFR...THOUGH BRIEFLY LOWER AGAIN IN ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE FLINT HILLS THIS EVENING...BEFORE EXITING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OZARKS LATER TONIGHT. A CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CIGS AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
AND COVERAGE NOT AS HIGH AS THIS MORNING...SO WILL OMIT FROM TAFS
FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  96  77  96 /  40   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      71  97  76  96 /  30   0  10  10
NEWTON          72  96  76  96 /  40  10   0  10
ELDORADO        71  95  75  95 /  50  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  96  77  95 /  50   0   0  10
RUSSELL         69  99  75 100 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  74  97 /  20   0  10  10
SALINA          70  97  77  97 /  30  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       71  97  76  96 /  30  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     72  94  77  94 /  60  10   0  10
CHANUTE         72  93  75  93 /  60  10   0  10
IOLA            72  92  75  93 /  60  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  93  76  94 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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