Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
215 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL RAOB DATA/SATELLITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES...WHICH DOWNSTREAM
OVER OUR REGION HAS PRODUCED A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.  THIS
CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH REGULAR
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE CWA CONTINUE TO FESTER IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS NOTED ON THE 315K SURFACE.  THESE SHOULD LAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND CAPE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.  MAIN THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS IS LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.  SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING AT KSGF AND KOUN
BOTH SHOW SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING...WHEN
MODIFIED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

5 DAY MEANS OF THE 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWS RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
PLAINS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES.

COOK
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  UNCERTAINTY IS
MODERATE.

EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE.  HOWEVER...SPC MESO-ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LACK
OF SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE...KEEPING THIS DEEP CONVERGENCE
OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  THEREFORE...NOT
VERY CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

ONCE DECOUPLING OCCURS THIS EVENING AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BEGINS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THAT REGION.  CORFIDI VECTORS AS WELL AS SIGNALS IN THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT FIELDS OF THE NAM-WRF /310K/ SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK SIMILAR IN THAT THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ON AN UPWARD TREND GIVEN THE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION.  CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THESE DAYS.  THIS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE THURSDAY AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAIN CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

RIDGE BUILDING DURING THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN IN THE AREA WITH THE MEAN FLOW IS...BUT
THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.  CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ARE VERY SMALL.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD AFFECT
KHUT/KICT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF SYSTEM TAKES OVER. MAIN CONCERN IS SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR NOCTURAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS
RIPPLE IN UPPER FLOW CURRENTLY ALONG AZ/MEXICO BORDER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA. GIVEN MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
TONIGHT...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WOULD NOT HOLD TOGETHER AND ROLL ACROSS ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
CLIMATOLOGY FAVORED OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER GIVEN MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...AND TIMING DIFFICULTIES...WILL LIMIT CURRENT
FORECASTS TO CBS FOR NOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  94  73  95 /  40  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      72  94  74  96 /  30  30  10  20
NEWTON          72  93  73  93 /  30  30  10  10
ELDORADO        69  93  72  93 /  40  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  94  74  93 /  40  30  10  10
RUSSELL         70  96  70  96 /  30  30  20  20
GREAT BEND      70  96  70  95 /  30  30  20  20
SALINA          72  94  73  97 /  30  30  20  20
MCPHERSON       70  94  71  95 /  30  30  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  92  74  94 /  70  20  10  10
CHANUTE         70  91  73  93 /  50  30  10  10
IOLA            70  91  73  93 /  40  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  92  74  94 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-172015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
315 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER AND AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS
AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY...THEN STALL
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AREAS NEAR THE FRONT. A FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

COOK

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