Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AGAIN TONIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM CONVECTION...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN MOST AREAS TOWARD DAWN MONDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING. THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH...LIKELY
ENHANCED BY CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY:
AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE FIRING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WERE LAID OUT FROM THE
STORMS THAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHERE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
WILL BE THE GREATEST CONCERN. OVERNIGHT WE ARE AGAIN SETTING UP FOR
VERY HEAVY RAIN. BY 06Z STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE AND STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WHICH WILL MAKE
THESE STORMS VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. AM THINKING WE COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS AREA OF 2-3 INCHES WHICH
WILL CAUSE FURTHER FLOODING PROBLEMS. EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO
INCLUDE ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND RAN IT UNTIL 18Z ON MONDAY. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA SO AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AGAIN BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CONTINUING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
AGAIN BE HEAVY ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE WE MAY SEE AN
MCS DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BY LATE TUESDAY OUR CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY:
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S.
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. FOR
NOW AM KEEPING OUT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TRENDS BUT DIFFERENTIATE ON LOCATION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME AM INCLINED TO FOLLOW THE EURO MODEL...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING THEN MOVING IT EASTWARD. THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO ONTARIO BY SATURDAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY AND EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WILL LEAVE DRY AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE
THE BOUNDARY WILL ACTUALLY HANG UP ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

ELDER

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR MASS IS VERY
UNSTABLE AND EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE KRSL AND KSLN AREAS IN THE 21-22Z
TIME FRAME THEN WORK INTO THE KHUT/KICT AREAS BY 00Z...THEN ON INTO
KCNU BY 02Z. TSTMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO IFR AFT 06Z. SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS MOST AREA BY 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  81  65  82 / 100  60  40  20
HUTCHINSON      66  80  63  82 /  90  60  30  20
NEWTON          67  80  64  82 /  90  60  40  20
ELDORADO        69  82  65  82 / 100  70  50  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  84  66  83 / 100  70  60  30
RUSSELL         59  76  60  82 /  70  40  20  10
GREAT BEND      61  76  61  82 /  80  50  30  20
SALINA          65  78  62  82 /  90  50  30  20
MCPHERSON       66  79  62  82 /  90  50  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  86  68  83 / 100  70  70  40
CHANUTE         73  85  67  82 / 100  80  60  40
IOLA            72  85  66  82 / 100  70  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  85  68  82 / 100  80  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

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