Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT:
SHORT TERM COMPLICATED BY APPARENT BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH OUT OF
OK WHICH HAS ATTEMPTED TO FIRE SOME RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY OF OK BORDER AND ALSO REMMANT PRECIPITATION IN
SOUTHEAST KS FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS. BELIEVE MUCH OF THIS IS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. THE PRIMARY
FOCUS IS BOUNDARY/FRONT WHICH WAS JUST CLIPPING FAR NORTHWEST
PART OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO BASE MUCH OF
THE EVOLUTION FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS ON LOCAL 32KM WRF WITH NO
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SCHEME. NOT BEING AS AFFECTED BY
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROVIDES A BETTER GUESS OF THE PRESTORM
ENVIRONMENTS. THE MAIN KEY IS DECENT TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO CENTRAL KS WITH MCS LIKELY AFFECTING CENTRAL KS AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY TURNING/DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT GREAT...BUT NOT A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. BELIEVE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE IN CENTRAL KS AND HAVE HOISTED FLOOD WATCH FOR
THAT AREA...PRIMARILY FOR TROPICAL RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOWER TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TRACK OF MCS/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS MUCH LOWER
TOO...SO OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON WATCH FOR NOW. EVENING SHIFT CAN
ADJUST WHEN/IF THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR...GIVEN AN ANTICIPATED
ONSET AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUN:
SUSPECT BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG NE
BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION THIS WILL BE...BUT LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD CUT INTO
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HOW FAR OUTFLOW GOES WILL HAVE A
HUGE IMPACT ON MAXES AND TRIED TO HEDGE A BIT ON TEMPERATURES.
DECENT CHANCE THAT LATER SHIFTS WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR SUN NIGHT.

MON-SAT:
BOUNDARY MAY LURK AROUND EARLY IN PERIOD...BUT MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE THROUGHOUT LATER PART OF THE PERIOD. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
LESSENING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
AS A RESULT HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AND DROPPED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN INCREASING
CAP. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM KDDC AND IS NOW JUST SOUTH
OF KRSL. STORMS TO THE NORTH PUSHED OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THIS MORNING THAT TRACKED THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL KS BUT IS NOW
STARTING TO WASH OUT AS WINDS HAVE NOW FLIPPED BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH. NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT LOW CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD WITH KRSL
ON THE VERY SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THESE MVFR CIGS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR INITIATION WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT WEST WILL HAVE A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF AFFECTING CENTRAL KS AFTER DARK.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  91  73  83 /  30  30  70  50
HUTCHINSON      73  89  70  82 /  50  40  80  40
NEWTON          73  88  71  82 /  40  40  70  50
ELDORADO        73  88  71  84 /  30  30  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  90  75  85 /  20  30  50  50
RUSSELL         69  80  63  78 /  70  40  80  40
GREAT BEND      71  84  65  78 /  70  40  80  40
SALINA          72  82  69  80 /  60  50  80  40
MCPHERSON       73  86  70  81 /  50  40  80  40
COFFEYVILLE     75  90  75  87 /  20  40  40  60
CHANUTE         73  89  73  86 /  20  40  40  60
IOLA            73  88  73  86 /  20  50  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    75  89  74  85 /  20  40  40  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ032-033-047>050.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
504 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

KSZ047-122300-
BARTON-
504 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARTON COUNTY...

AT 459 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALBERT...OR 16 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LARNED...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN BARTON COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. BE
READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

SCHRECK