Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WORDNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

CONVECTION SO FAR HAS BEEN ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED AND MAINLY
POST-FRONTAL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE ML CAPES WERE
APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING...SO EXPECT A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK...WITH SLOW MOVEMENT AND SOME TRAINING
LENDING TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE ASSOCIATED
RESERVOIR OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE KEY TO THE FORECAST
WITH REGARD TO PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE
NAM AND GFS PUSH THIS FRONT INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
MONDAY MORNING...ITS NORTHWARD RETURN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
KEY TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF MCS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FESTER INTO
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. A RATHER
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RIPPLE EAST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE THE SURFACE
AND ELEVATED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE SOME CAPPING MAY EXIST
ACROSS THIS AREA TOWARD PEAK HEATING...THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO
BECOME MODERATELY TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY THE FRONT.
SO WILL KEEP MODEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA. DURING MONDAY NIGHT...A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WILL
RESULT IN A NW-SE ORIENTED INSTABILITY AXIS WITH CAPES AT OR
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THE LATE
DAY HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNALS OF A POTENTIAL
MCS...THEY DIFFER ON THE AREA OF INITIATION AND TRACK. FOR NOW A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND CONCEPTUAL EXPECTATIONS...SO WILL UP-TWEAK POPS TO CHC50
AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...STRONG
WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD
CAP CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
MAINLY CLOSE TO I-70 WHERE THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM FRONT MAY STILL RESIDE...WHICH COULD
FOCUS CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS
TO BE A HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST
MAXS OF THE SPRING EXPECTED. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND FOR
NOW HAVE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WARMER SOLUTION WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO THE VERY
WARM AND BASICALLY DRY FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FRONT COULD VENTURE INTO THE AREA...THOUGH RATHER
LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD
PRECLUDE MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THE FRONT STRETCHES FROM KSLN TO KHUT AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WANING AFTER SUNSET.
OTHER THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT AND LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THUNDERSTORMS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCHRECK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  86  67  92 /  50  30  50  30
HUTCHINSON      61  85  66  92 /  40  30  50  20
NEWTON          62  85  66  91 /  50  30  50  30
ELDORADO        63  86  66  90 /  50  30  50  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  86  67  92 /  50  30  50  30
RUSSELL         55  84  65  92 /  20  20  40  30
GREAT BEND      57  84  65  92 /  20  20  50  20
SALINA          59  85  66  92 /  30  20  40  30
MCPHERSON       61  85  66  92 /  40  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     66  88  68  90 /  50  30  40  40
CHANUTE         65  86  67  88 /  50  30  40  40
IOLA            64  87  67  88 /  50  30  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    66  87  68  90 /  50  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
357 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-312100-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
357 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE FLINT HILLS. THE MAIN SEVERE
RISKS WILL BE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING DOWN-BURST
WINDS TO 60 MPH. DUE TO A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT AND STORMS
TENDING TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

ANYONE AT AREA LAKES OR CAMPING AREAS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE
WEATHER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND BE READY TO SEEK STURDY
SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF I-135. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING BY LATE THURSDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH MID-WEEK.

PLEASE CHECK LATER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS REGARDING THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE FLINT HILLS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
440 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

KSZ053-302230-
CHASE-
440 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHASE COUNTY...

AT 439 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COTTONWOOD FALLS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

JAKUB