River Flood Warning 40, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS A
MESSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER ALL 5 TERMINALS WITH WIDELY
VARYING CIGS & VSBYS DUE IN NO SMALL PART TO AREAS OF +RA & EMBEDDED
++TSRA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE FOCUSED ON FIRST 3-4 HOURS OF 05/12Z
TAF CYCLE AS BOTH CIGS & VSBYS HAVE FLUCTUATED GREATLY FROM LIFR-VFR
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT & EARLY MORNING & SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO LAST EVENING'S ECHO TRAINING A FEW RIVERS IN SC KS HAVE TRULY
RISEN TO THE OCCASION...ESPECIALLY THE COWSKIN & CHIKASKIA RIVERS.
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BOTH RIVERS. THE RATE OF ASCENT
ON THE LITTLE ARKANSAS APPEARS TO BE SLOWING AT HALSTEAD & SEDGWICK
BUT WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY WITH
FURTHER +RA LIKELY THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT:
MAIN CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WELL ADVERTIZED HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABOUT
ANY EXCUSE GOOD ENOUGH TO SET OFF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN. 0000 UTC
NAM PICKED UP ON BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM KEGT-KCNU. NAM ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THIS WILL WANE
AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH ANOTHER BAND DEVELOPING NORTH OF IT.
HOWEVER HARD PRESSED WHETHER TO BELIEVE NAM THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GIVEN THE AIRMASS AND
APPROACH VORTICITY MAXIMUM. CLEARLY THE BRUNT OF THE IMPACT OF
THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND DO EXPECT MORE HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT. WILL EXPAND FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ENTIRE AREA. AREA
HIT HARDEST YESTERDAY COULD BE UNDER THE GUN TONIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AGAIN WITH COMBO OF SURFACE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS BOTH LIMITING WARMUP.

TUE:

BRIEF RESPITE IN WAKE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM...BUT GIVEN THAT THE
MOISTURE IS NOT PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA AND RETURN/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUE...APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AGAIN WITH COMBO OF RESIDUAL
WATER CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

WED-SUN:

NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. -HOWERTON

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

WILL BE LOOKING AT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER
TONIGHT WILL BE KCNU AND KRSL...WITH THUNDER CHANCES EVERYWHERE
MONDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. CIGS WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT.
THINKING BEST CHANCE FOR IFR WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY KHUT-KSLN-KRSL. ALTHOUGH KICT MAY GET IN ON THE
IFR ACTION AS WELL DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  72  85  71 /  70  80  30  20
HUTCHINSON      83  72  85  70 /  70  70  20  20
NEWTON          80  71  84  70 /  70  80  30  20
ELDORADO        82  71  84  71 /  70  80  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  74  86  72 /  60  80  40  30
RUSSELL         85  69  85  68 /  70  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      85  70  87  68 /  70  60  10  20
SALINA          83  71  85  69 /  70  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       83  71  85  70 /  70  70  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     89  74  89  73 /  60  60  50  30
CHANUTE         85  74  87  72 /  60  70  60  30
IOLA            85  73  86  72 /  70  70  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    87  73  88  73 /  60  70  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
446 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-061000-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
446 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD AND RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THOUGH FRIDAY. WITH
SATURATED GROUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
THREAT FOR FLOODING CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT OR ORGANIZED THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR
TONIGHT...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR FLOODING REPORTS WOULD
BE APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

HOWERTON

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