River Flood Warning 35, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT.  THEN PRECIP CONCERNS INTO MIDWEEK.

TONIGHT:
CURRENT BATCH OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY LED TO SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS...AS FIRST PV ANOMALY
IS WRAPPING INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME.  PRECIP HAS BEEN FURTHER
ENHANCED IN AND NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KS
AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY IS
MAXIMIZED...GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES.
CURRENT LOOK AT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS MAY SEE A LULL IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND
AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN IMPULSES.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE TREND FOR THE MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS SOME
LIFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS ELEVATED CAPES REMAIN AROUND
500 J/KG.

MON-MON NIGHT:
EXPECT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE ON MON...AS SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOW TWO PV-ANOMALIES COMING OUT OF TX AND THE ROCKIES. ONE
ON MON MORNING AND ANOTHER MON EVENING.  THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS THE AREA AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. SO COULD SEE A
HEAVY RAINFALL BATCH MON MORNING AND ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE FOR MON EVENING. HAVE ALREADY HOISTED A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
THE FORECAST AREA...WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS...GIVEN THIS CONTINUED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. NOT AS CONFIDENT IN HOW FAR
EAST THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE....SO WILL LEAVE MOST OF SOUTHEAST
KS OUT OF THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS SETS UP ON MON.

TUE-THU:
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW THE MID WEEK WILL PLAY OUT...WITH THE
ECMWF STILL THE SLOWER SOLUTION IN LEAVING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL QUASI
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.  THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS
A LITTLE MORE ROBUST IN PUSHING SOME DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL KS FOR
WED INTO THU. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WHEN IT COMES TO
SYNOPTIC POSITIONS SO FAR THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL FOLLOW THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION FOR NOW...WHICH MEANS KEEPING POPS AROUND FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.  NOT EXPECTING THIS TIME PERIOD TO SEE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS WEEKEND...AS THE BETTER MID LEVEL LIFT
WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

REST OF THE EXTENDED:
UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO TRANSITION FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND FROM SW FLOW
TO MORE OF A WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON
THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING...WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...SO WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN SRN KS FOR NOW ON FRI. BUT AFTER THAT...THIS
RIDGING WILL PUSH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS..AND HELP THE AREA DRY OUT SOME BY SAT INTO SUN.

KETCHAM

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 17Z EXTENDED FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS ACROSS NRN
KS. TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AROUND 2 TO
2.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM N-NEWD INTO MUCH OF OUR
AREA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED
TO SAG SWD INTO CENTRAL KS BY 12Z MON BEFORE STALLING. THE HIGHEST
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS PM
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE LIKELY. UTILIZING TEMPO AND PREVAILING GROUPS THERE. THE RAIN
SHOULD SPREAD INTO SERN KS THIS EVENING. PREVAILING IFR/LIFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT INTO MON AM IN
CENTRAL/S-CNTRL KS WHERE COMBINATION OF SERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER OCCUR.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  82  72  87 /  80  70  60  40
HUTCHINSON      72  81  71  86 /  80  80  60  30
NEWTON          73  82  71  85 /  80  70  60  30
ELDORADO        73  84  72  87 /  80  80  70  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  84  73  89 /  80  70  60  40
RUSSELL         72  82  69  87 /  80  50  50  20
GREAT BEND      72  82  70  87 /  80  60  50  20
SALINA          72  81  70  86 /  80  70  60  30
MCPHERSON       73  81  71  85 /  80  70  60  30
COFFEYVILLE     73  88  74  88 /  60  60  60  40
CHANUTE         73  87  74  89 /  70  70  60  40
IOLA            73  87  74  88 /  70  80  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    73  87  74  88 /  60  70  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
419 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-052130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
419 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCREASED
FLOODING POTENTIAL. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE REGION FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD BE NEITHER STRONG NOR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES/JMC/JMB/KETCHAM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
422 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

KSZ052-068-069-042200-
BUTLER-HARVEY-MARION-
422 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTLER...HARVEY AND MARION COUNTIES...

AT 420 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
NEAR WHITEWATER...OR 12 MILES EAST OF NEWTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS DUE TO
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
430 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE KINGMAN           37.69N 98.08W
07/04/2010  M4.00 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURES 4 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 6AM.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
455 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SSE WESTFALL          38.86N 97.96W
07/04/2010  M1.30 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 7 AM.

&&

ADK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
505 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

KSZ052-053-069-042300-
BUTLER-CHASE-MARION-
505 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTLER...CHASE AND MARION COUNTIES...

AT 502 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CEDAR POINT TO POTWIN...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS DUE TO
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
532 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     FLOOD            WICHITA MID CONTINENT A 37.66N 97.44W
07/04/2010                   SEDGWICK           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
            SEDGWICK COUNTY WERE FLOODED.

&&

ADK