River Flood Warning 22, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
640 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WHICH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO AFFECT SOME TAF
SITES THIS MORNING DUE TO HEAVY RAIN RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING MORE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CLOUDS.

JAKUB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TODAY INTO MONDAY.

TODAY-TUESDAY:
CURRENT MCS ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN CENTRAL/S-CNTRL KS IS OCCURRING
ALONG THE 925 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE...JUST N-NW OF SURFACE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE
WEAKENING AS THE 850 LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS BY 18Z. 1-2 INCH/HOUR
RAINFALL RATES BEING OBSERVED IN THAT CORRIDOR OF T-STORMS. UPPER
LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY...AND IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF TO LIFT OUT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY. WRFAR32 SHOWS THE 925 MB BOUNDARY
SETTING UP FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO S-CNTRL/NERN KS LATE THIS
PM...WITH THE FRONT SLIDING INTO SERN KS MONDAY MORNING. IF
SUFFICIENT HEATING/RECOVERY OCCUR ALONG/S OF THIS FRONT THIS
PM/EVE...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY
(CAPES 2000-3000 J/KG) WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KT NEAR THE FRONT.
THAT WOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS PM/EARLY
EVE. CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO AN MCS OR TWO BY
MID-LATE EVENING AS ANOTHER S-SWRLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FOCUSING
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT COINCIDENT WITH THE
RIGHT-REAR QUAD OF A STRONG JET STREAK TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL MCS
TRAINING ECHOES LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH MID-UPPER FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE 850 FRONT. VERY HIGH PW AIRMASS ~2 INCHES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS STRONGLY SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SO EXPANDING THE
FLOOD WATCH IN AREAL EXTENT AND TIME. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STRONG-
SEVERE STORMS IN SERN KS MON PM BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...CONTINGENT ON ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY/HEATING. DECENT
CHANCES FOR T-STORMS WILL LINGER IN SERN KS MON NGT INTO TUES WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THAT AREA AND CONTINUED
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL COOL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT MON-TUES.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
NEXT UPPER TROF ENTERING THE WESTERN STATES WEDNESDAY...IS STILL
PROGGED TO EJECT E-NEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SWD INTO THE KS
REGION TOWARD FRIDAY WHERE IT MAY STALL INTO SATURDAY. UPPER
SUPPORT LOOKS WEAK...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DECENT. ATTM...WILL
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  69  81  65 /  70  90  50  40
HUTCHINSON      87  66  80  63 /  80  90  40  30
NEWTON          86  67  80  64 /  80  90  50  40
ELDORADO        89  69  82  65 /  70  90  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   90  71  84  66 /  40  90  60  50
RUSSELL         80  59  76  60 /  70  80  40  20
GREAT BEND      83  61  76  61 /  70  80  40  20
SALINA          82  65  78  62 /  80  90  40  20
MCPHERSON       85  66  79  62 /  80  90  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     91  75  86  68 /  40  70  60  70
CHANUTE         89  73  85  67 /  50  80  60  60
IOLA            89  72  85  66 /  50  80  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    90  74  85  68 /  40  80  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091-092-094-095.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
433 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-140945-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
433 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN FLOODING PROBLEMS...AND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AROUND MIDDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SUNSHINE AND HEATING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
551 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

KSZ068-083-131145-
HARVEY-SEDGWICK-
551 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARVEY AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES...

AT 546 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF
BURRTON TO CHENEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
LINE OF STORMS.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
648 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 AM     FLOOD            S HILLSBORO             38.35N 97.20W
06/13/2010                   MARION             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            FLOODING 1/2 SOUTH FROM HILLSBORO ALONG 150TH ROAD.

&&

JAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
653 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLOOD            3 SE NEWTON             38.01N 97.30W
06/13/2010                   HARVEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MINOR FIELD AND STREET FLOODING IN THE CITY OF MCLAINS.

&&

JAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
709 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       TURON                   37.81N 98.43W
06/13/2010  M6.75 INCH       RENO               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
722 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 AM     FLOOD            W GOESSEL               38.25N 97.35W
06/13/2010                   MARION             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COUNTY ROAD FLOODING ON 120TH AND MERIDIAN AV JUST WEST
            OF GOESSEL.

&&

JAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
748 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ELLINWOOD               38.36N 98.58W
06/13/2010  M2.95 INCH       BARTON             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GOESSEL                 38.25N 97.35W
06/13/2010  E2.53 INCH       MARION             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HILLSBORO               38.35N 97.20W
06/13/2010  M4.22 INCH       MARION             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW HALSTEAD           37.97N 97.55W
06/13/2010  M2.10 INCH       HARVEY             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CHASE                   38.36N 98.35W
06/13/2010  M2.25 INCH       RICE               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JAS