Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1234 PM CDT WED NOV 3 2010

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EVEN BEYOND
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE
ALLOWED FOR GUSTY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...WHEN
MIXING SUBSIDES. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TOMORROW
AND SET UP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE...THIS WILL GIVE A NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON THURSDAY.

DUNTEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTH WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY HAVE A CLOSED LOW DOWN ACROSS SE TX WITH A MUCH STRONGER
PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS
WILL SETUP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF NE...KS AND
OKLAHOMA. SUSTAINED NORTH WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHER END OF THESE
RANGES OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL KS. THESE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIE OFF AS SUNSET APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD AND LIKELY LONGER.

LAWSON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON FIRST POTENTIAL
HARD FREEZE THIS MILD FALL SEASON FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A NICE WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY.

TDY-TONIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
OF OUR CWA...WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER
TAPPING INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THE WIND SPEEDS COULD FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN ADDITION THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER RISK WILL BE
ELEVATED TO VERY HIGH LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. IF DEWPOINTS DROP MORE THAN EXPECTED A
RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED.

THU-FRI
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS
THIS PERIOD...AS COOLER CANADIAN AIR SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THUS PROVIDING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WE WILL
ADD RENO COUNTY TO FREEZE WATCH AT THIS JUNCTURE...AND FURTHER WATCH
CHANGES COULD BE IN STORE IF BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING EXPANDS
EASTWARD WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

EXTENDED: SAT-TUE
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ALONG WITH A NICE WARMING TREND FOR KANSAS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGING WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WITH WARMER AIR BUILDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND
EXPANDING EASTWARD. MEANWHILE A UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THIS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE PICTURE...THUS ONLY EXPECTING A
WIND SHIFT FOR SUNDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY...HOWEVER THAT COULD CHANGE COME TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK AS LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A DECENT PUSH OF
COLDER AIR VENTURING SOUTH.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    35  59  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  59  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          35  58  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        37  59  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  60  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         33  60  24  60 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      33  59  24  60 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          35  60  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       34  59  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     38  61  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         37  59  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            37  58  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    37  59  32  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
856 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-041400-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
856 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LEVELS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FREEZE
WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

CJ/DUNTEN