Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Wichita, KS

529 
WGUS73 KICT 091810
FFSICT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
110 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

KSC017-073-207-091820-
/O.CAN.KICT.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100609T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHASE KS-GREENWOOD KS-WOODSON KS-
110 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WOODSON...GREENWOOD
AND CHASE COUNTIES...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS 
IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT THURSDAY.

LAT...LON 3773 9553 3773 9651 3808 9652 3809 9683
      3852 9681 3852 9635 3817 9635 3817 9595
      3804 9596 3804 9551

$$

HOWERTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
346 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS...WILL BE THE CONVECTION CHANCES AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS TODAY AND ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE CONVECTION CHANCES ON SATURDAY.

SYNOPSIS:
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS MN/WI WHICH HELPED MOVE THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND INTO SOUTHEAST KS. STORMS FIRED OFF
OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE LASTED
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WHERE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE QUITE
STATIONARY FOR THE TIME BEING. STRONG STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTH EAST KANSAS. STRONG CONVERGENCE
IS STILL NOTED IN THE PROFILERS...STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE
SYSTEM AS WELL AS A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS HELPING FEED THE
STORMS. LOOKING AT THE BULK SHEAR AND CORFIDI VECTORS...THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO TREK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
BACKBUILD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
AREA TO TREND TOWARDS THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT:

WITH THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAT HAVE FALLEN AS WELL AS
THE CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SAME AREA TODAY DECIDED TO
HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS UNTIL 7PM. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE INDICATED THAT THE FRONTAL
POSITION WILL DRAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE STORMS WILL STILL
LINGER. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN AND
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND PUSH NORTHWARD.
BELIEVE WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND VERY LITTLE CIN COULD SEE A
STORM OF TWO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER WARM 700
MB TEMPS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND CAP THE ENVIRONMENT
OVERNIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN KANSAS
AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS PREV FORECAST
ALLUDED...A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE MCS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH...PERHAPS CLIP CENTRAL
KS. KEPT THE PREV FORECASTERS POPS IN CASE THE SYSTEM DOES TAKE A
SOUTHEAST TRACK.

THURSDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT:

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL DRY OUT FOR A LITTLE
BIT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER
BOTH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL LOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF AND TREK ACROSS
TEXAS AND UP INTO MO. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM COULD EFFECT
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THEREFORE LEFT 20 POPS.

UPPER 90S WILL MAKE THERE WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ITS TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW TO RIDGING
OVER THE AREA. WITH THE HEIGHTS RISING AND STRONG WARM AIR
ALOFT...25C AT 850MB...SEEMS REASONABLE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TO REACH BETWEEN 94-97F.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP
ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. LARGE AMOUNTS OF CAPE...AROUND 3500J/KG...ABOUT 25KTS
IN THE SHEAR VECTORS....AS WELL AS VERY LITTLE CIN...WILL AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.

DUNTEN

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 310K SURFACE AND LOCAL PROFILERS SHOWS
A GENESIS AREA FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
SLN...WITH ACTIVITY THEN TRAINING TO THE EAST WHICH COULD CAUSE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE TAF SITES MOST AT
RISK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ICT/CNU.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS EARLY IN THE MORNING.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  70  91  73 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      85  70  90  73 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          86  70  89  73 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        86  70  90  73 /  30  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  71  90  73 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         86  69  94  71 /  20  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      85  69  92  72 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          85  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       85  70  91  73 /  20  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  72  91  74 /  40  20  10  10
CHANUTE         86  70  90  73 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            85  70  90  72 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    87  71  90  73 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-053-068>072-083-
092>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
506 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-101015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
506 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN RISK FROM
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT WITNESSED HEAVY RAIN DURING YESTERDAYS STORMS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
NORTH OF A LINE FROM GREAT BEND DOWN TO INDEPENDENCE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH 50 MPH WINDS...NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAT INDICES VALUES MAY REACH ABOVE 100 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS TIME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

DUNTEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
328 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

KSZ098-090915-
CHAUTAUQUA-
328 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...

AT 324 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL 6 MILES WEST OF SEDAN...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
333 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EUREKA                  37.82N 96.29W
06/09/2010                   GREENWOOD          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
502 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SEDAN                   37.13N 96.18W
06/09/2010  E2.20 INCH       CHAUTAUQUA         KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
504 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SEDAN                   37.13N 96.18W
06/09/2010  M2.20 INCH       CHAUTAUQUA         KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
601 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BENTON                  37.79N 97.11W
06/09/2010  M3.18 INCH       BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
622 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ENE LEON              37.72N 96.73W
06/09/2010  M3.70 INCH       BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURES 3.7 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE TUESDAY
            EVENING AND STILL RAINING.

&&

VJP