Tornado Warning 5, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA MOVING ACROSS N AL HAVE BROUGHT MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VIS ACROSS MAINLY KHSV FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SOME DROPS TO
LIFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH +TSRA. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BREAK TO VFR OVER
NW AL (KMSL) WITH MVFR CIGS FROM AN UPPER LOW...MOVING ACROSS BY
04-05Z. -SHRA IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM 06-07Z AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNTIL 16-18Z
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010/
WE HAVE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY STRONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE JUST
THE FIRST OF TWO TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LET'S START WITH THE MESOSCALE AND IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. WE HAVE
BEEN TRACKING A CLEARING ZONE ALL DAY TO THE WEST. CLOUDS AND
SHRA/TSRA ARE STARTING TO FILL INTO THAT CLEARING ZONE IN MULTIPLE
BANDS. LOCALLY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES WITH CLOUDY AND DREARY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE YET TO REALLY RISE A WHOLE LOT...BUT THAT
SHOULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
THOSE SHRA/TSRA GOING INTO AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

BY THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (00Z TONIGHT)...THE COMBINATION
OF ADDED STABILITY OVER NERN AL...AND SUNSET...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
QUICK WEAKENING OF STORMS...AND PROBABLY THE THUNDER THREAT IS OVER
BY 03Z. HOWEVER...UPPER ENERGY WILL BE LINGERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM
AND THE DRYING NRLY WIND PUSH LAGS BEHIND...SO SOME REMNANT SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST YOU GO. TEMPS DO DROP OFF NICELY ONCE THE NRLY WIND
SET IN...AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S BY DAYBREAK.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...TEMPS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TODAY AND
THAT SEEMS PRETTY REASONABLE TO EXPECT HERE TOMORROW. A DECENT
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN A LITTLE CHILLIER. WINDS
WILL START TO DIE DOWN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
WEDGE IN OVER THE NERN STATES. WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING...LOWS
SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE 30S...AND I CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LIGHT FREEZE IN THE TYPICALLY COLDEST SPOTS.

UPPER RIDGING AND FAIRLY ROBUST SRLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
THE WEEKEND IS WHAT I WILL CALL A 50/50 WEEKEND. AS NICE AS SATURDAY
WILL BE...SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CRUMMY. RAIN AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD IN SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS ENSEMBLES
ARE FASTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL IN BRINGING THE RAIN INTO THE
AREA...WHICH WAS ALSO THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING. SO THAT LEADS ME
TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...BY CARRYING HIGHER POPS AND AN
EARLIER ONSET.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH SUNDAY. OBVIOUSLY
GIVEN WHERE WE ARE TODAY...THOUGHTS IMMEDIATELY TURN TOWARD SEVERE
WEATHER. I AM NOT AS IMPRESSED WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AS THE ONE
TODAY. SUNDAY'S SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND
MOISTURE RETURN ALSO DOES NOT LOOK AS ROBUST...SO ALTHOUGH STRONG
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...RIGHT NOW SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW HERE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT (AGAIN) AS TEMPERATURES
COOL BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODEL MADNESS CONTINUES FOR NEXT WEEK. THE GFS...AFTER DROPPING
YESTERDAY'S IDEA OF A RANDOM CUTOFF UPPER LOW...HAS DECIDED TO GO
BACK TO IT AGAIN. THAT IDEA WILL CONTINUE TO BE DISCARDED UNLESS IT
STARTS SHOWING UP CONSISTENTLY. THROWING THAT OUT...THE CONSENSUS IS
FOR THE STRONGEST UPPER RIDGE I HAVE SEEN AROUND HERE IN QUITE SOME
TIME TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS IN THE WEST
AND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE NRN ATLANTIC. NO PRECIP IS
THUS EXPECTED...AND WE MAY FINALLY BREAK THAT SUB-75 DEGREE STREAK
BY NEXT THURSDAY...NO FOOLING.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...JE/23
AVIATION...SL.77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
235 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-260300-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
235 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. APPROXIMATE TIMING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THROUGH 6 PM IN
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 65
CORRIDOR....AND 6 PM TO 8 PM FOR NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 CONTINUE TO HAVE
A HIGHER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA WEST-TO-EAST BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CREATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BECOME
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

KDW/DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
502 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             4 N FLORENCE            34.88N 87.68W
03/25/2010  E1.00 INCH       LAUDERDALE         AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN THE OAK HILL SUBDIVISION NORTH OF
            FLORENCE. REPORTED BY FLORENCE FIRE DEPT.

&&

JE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
507 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

ALZ002-004-252230-
COLBERT-LAWRENCE-
507 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN COLBERT AND NORTHWEST
LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 507 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LITTLEVILLE...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF
RUSSELLVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEA TP PENNY SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  SPRING VALLEY.
  WHITEOAK.
  LEIGHTON...FORD CITY.
  TOWN CREEK...NORTH COURTLAND.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 8717 3457 8761 3457 8781 3465 8786
      3480 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 243DEG 37KT 3462 8770

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
510 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

ALZ005-007-252245-
LIMESTONE-MORGAN-
510 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIMESTONE AND MORGAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 507 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BASHAM...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DECATUR...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  FLINT CITY.
  DECATUR.
  MOORESVILLE...BELLE MINA.
  CAPSHAW.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 8711 3459 8711 3481 8679 3457 8679
      3445 8708
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 235DEG 35KT 3455 8704

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
538 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

ALZ005-006-252315-
LIMESTONE-MADISON-
538 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIMESTONE AND MADISON COUNTIES
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LINCOLN TO
MOORESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  TRIANA...MERIDIANVILLE.
  PLEVNA...NORMAL.
  NEW MARKET...HUNTSVILLE.
  DEPOSIT.
  HADEN...MAYSVILLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 8633 3488 8634 3485 8634 3464 8650
      3456 8683 3459 8692 3500 8656 3499 8631
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 250DEG 25KT 3499 8650 3462 8681

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
559 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

ALZ016-252330-
CULLMAN-
559 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CULLMAN COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

AT 558 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ADDISON...OR 17 MILES WEST OF
CULLMAN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM HAS ALSO EXIHBITED WEAK
ROTATION.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  JONES CHAPEL.
  BATTLEGROUND.
  WEST POINT.
  BALDWIN.
  SOUTH VINEMONT...CULLMAN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3417 8712 3430 8712 3431 8711 3432 8708
      3431 8705 3431 8681 3414 8679
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 269DEG 30KT 3422 8712

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
604 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

ALZ006-252330-
MADISON-
604 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 604 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR REDSTONE ARSENAL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  FARLEY...HUNTSVILLE.
  HAMPTON COVE...HADEN.
  BROWNSBORO.
  GURLEY...MAYSVILLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 8634 3476 8633 3474 8635 3463 8635
      3459 8632 3454 8655 3457 8656 3459 8661
      3457 8663 3457 8667 3459 8668 3459 8672
      3468 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 252DEG 29KT 3463 8662

DJN