Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO
THE REGION...AND BRIEF/OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS
THROUGH LATE AFTN. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SAT. OTRW...VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN THE PREVAILING CONDITION
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010/

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY ILL DEFINED/WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE SERN US. IF ONE LOOKS HARD ENOUGH...A
WIND SHIFT AND WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH CAN BE NOTED ACROSS NRN AL/MS.
DWPTS WERE POOLED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S AT 1500 UTC. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPS WERE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 PRODUCING HEAT INDICES AROUND
100.

REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOWS ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ONGOING THIS MRNG...BUT
ACTIVITY WAS UNORGANIZED TO SAY THE LEAST. AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE
MID 90S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES TO
REACH AOB 2 KJ/KG. THIS...COUPLED WITH WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE IN
THE VCNTY OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...SHOULD LEAD TO SCT AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION. PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD LEAD TO SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS AS WELL. MICROBURST CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT AN ISOLATED/WDLY SCT OCCURRENCE OF DAMAGING WINDS IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...AM LEANING TOWARD INCREASING POPS SLIGHTLY.
MAY ALSO NEED TO TWEAK TEMPS A TAD BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS/TRENDS. HOWEVER...CURRENT FCST NOT TO FAR OFF THE MARK
OVERALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010/

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE CDFNT WILL BE...BUT
PROBABLY WILL GO BACK NORTH AND CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
MORE AFTN/EVENING SCT SHRA/TSRA. THUS WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. AGAIN DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SVR WX...JUST A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF SCT STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...WILL HAVE TWO PLAYERS IN THE WX PICTURE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT AND THE
SECOND ONE WILL BE A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

1ST...THE CDFNT...MODELS HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE WITH THE
TIMING...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MRNG. BY
TUESDAY AFTN THE CDFNT SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR CWA ALLOWING FOR
COOLER/LESS HUMID AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.

2ND...THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...ATTM THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS A GOOD CHC OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. NAM/ECMWF HAS
THE TRACK HEADING FOR NRN MEXICO WHILE GFS LOOKS TO TAKE IT ACROSS
FLORIDA. STAY TUNED.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...IF GFS TURNS OUT CORRECT...EXPECT HIGHS FROM
85 TO 90/LOWS MID 60S AND DRY WX WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

ENJOY...

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING LATER TODAY
INVOF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL HANDLE WITH A VCSH AND CB
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...15
DISCUSSION...15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1058 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-260300-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1058 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THEIR SLOW
MOVEMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS
TODAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO APPROACH 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN
CONDUCTING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ON MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CAUTION IS STRONGLY ADVISED WHEN
CONDUCTING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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