Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

.UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES:  MADISON...MORGAN...MARSHALL...JACKSON...
DEKALB...CULLMAN...MOORE...LINCOLN...AND FRANKLIN TN.

&&

.AVIATION...  /12Z ISSUANCE/
MVFR CIGS OR VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL 17Z AT KMSL AND UNTIL 18Z
AT KHSV. BOTH SITES WILL SEE A BRIEF LOWERING TO IFR BEFORE NOON.
THEN CIGS WILL LIFT INTO THE VFR REALM. BY THE EVENING
HOURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A FINAL FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH NORTHERN AL. MODELS HINT AT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
COMING THROUGH WITH THIS FRONT...BUT FOR NOW THEM OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT
FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO EXPIRE ON TIME.

OTHERWISE...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO RIDE TO
THE NE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS... LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-65 WILL BE AFFECTED
BY PERIODS OF THIS CONVECTION. A FEW STRONGER STORMS AFFECTING AREAS
NEAR TUSCALOOSA WILL REACH THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAST THE FRONT SAGS TO THE SE...THERE IS A SMALL
RISK OF MINOR FLOODING MAINLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR.

NEW UPDATES TO REMOVE THE WIND ADVISORY AND OTHER MINOR CLEAN UP ARE
ON THE WAY SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010/

DISCUSSION...
A TRYING NIGHT IN THE OFFICE THUS FAR...KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON
RADARS AS A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MARCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WEST OF THESE STORMS HAVE SLACKENED OFF QUITE A BIT. THEREFORE
WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR OUR WESTERN AND MOST OF OUR
CENTRAL ZONES BY OFFICIAL FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME. A BROADER COVERAGE
OF MORE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...ALBEIT A BIT WEAKER WERE MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST MISSISSIPPI/WEST ALABAMA BORDER. THESE WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS MORNING AFTER THE LINE PASSES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.

ANALYSIS OF EARLIER 24/0000Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEALED LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE 529DM RANGE OF SO. IT HAS HELPED TO
CARVE OUT DEEP TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THIS...RATHER SHARP RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE SE COAST TO SW
OF THE HUDSON BAY. A FIRST COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS NOTED
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SOUTH OF ST LOUIS. ANOTHER FRONT WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO OKLAHOMA.

WITH WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WEST OF THE PASSING SQUALL LINE...
WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OUR WESTERN AREAS BY PRESS TIME.
WILL KEEP THEM GOING A BIT MORE FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS.

OTHERWISE...HAVE MAINTAINED A SIMILAR TREND IN REGARDS TO THE
FORECAST. THE TIMING/MOVEMENT OF THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD HAVE THEM
REACHING THE NE ALABAMA BORDER TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THUS THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA WILL BE EXPIRED FOR THEM SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TODAY...
WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY ENDS.
DESPITE THE RAIN...TODAY SHOULD BE A WARM ONE WEATHER WISE WITH HIGH
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S. TONIGHT...THE SECOND COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY TONIGHT...BRINGING IN
COLDER TEMPS. THE LOW COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND CRANK UP TO A MAJOR STORM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BRING COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW GULF AROUND MID
WEEK AND MOVE TOWARD THIS REGION. IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE VALLEY AFTER MIDWEEK...CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. EVEN COLDER
AIR MOVING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THIS WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR
FRIDAY...AND A FEW FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE BIG CHANGES
TO THE EXTEND THIS GO AROUND.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE
TN...NONE

&&

AVIATION...20
DISCUSSION/PREV DISCUSSION...RB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
401 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

ALZ007-008-016-241030-
CULLMAN-MARSHALL-MORGAN-
401 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CULLMAN...MARSHALL AND MORGAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CST...

AT 4 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HANCEVILLE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CULLMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  FAIRVIEW...BAILEYTON.
  HULACO...RYAN CROSSROADS.
  EDDY...UNION GROVE.
  HEBRON.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3408 8692 3456 8656 3450 8653 3447 8647
      3449 8642 3452 8638 3452 8632 3454 8631
      3457 8632 3459 8629 3461 8632 3461 8620
      3412 8662 3409 8669 3406 8668 3399 8675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1001Z 214DEG 69KT 3411 8677

RSB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
418 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

ALZ006-241100-
MADISON-
418 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 500 AM
CST...

AT 417 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF
MERIDIANVILLE TO MERIDIANVILLE TO REDSTONE ARSENAL...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  FARLEY.
  PLEVNA...HADEN.
  MAYSVILLE...HAMPTON COVE.
  GURLEY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY RESULT
IN BRIEF RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8631 3496 8628 3494 8629 3493 8632
      3491 8632 3488 8634 3476 8633 3474 8635
      3458 8639 3458 8667 3459 8671 3458 8677
      3500 8665 3500 8632
TIME...MOT...LOC 1016Z 266DEG 30KT 3499 8654 3484 8657
          3463 8668

KTW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
435 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

ALZ005-007-008-016-241100-
CULLMAN-LIMESTONE-MARSHALL-MORGAN-
435 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CULLMAN...LIMESTONE...MARSHALL AND
MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CST...

AT 432 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CRANE HILL...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CULLMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  BALDWIN...JONES CHAPEL.
  SOUTH VINEMONT...WEST POINT.
  COLE SPRINGS...EVA.
  FLORETTE...SOMERVILLE.
  VALHERMOSO SPRINGS...LACEYS SPRING.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3400 8712 3442 8711 3477 8679 3456 8679
      3455 8675 3459 8671 3459 8668 3455 8665
      3459 8661 3459 8659 3456 8655 3433 8647
      3391 8690 3391 8692 3389 8692
TIME...MOT...LOC 1034Z 219DEG 71KT 3409 8706

RSB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
450 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

ALZ009-TNZ097-241115-
FRANKLIN-JACKSON-
450 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN
JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CST...

AT 449 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FRANCISCO...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF
WINCHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  BELVIDERE...SHERWOOD.
  COWAN...DECHERD.
  ALTO...SEWANEE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RUNOFF
PROBLEMS AND PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 8602 3533 8599 3532 8596 3529 8591
      3526 8589 3523 8589 3523 8586 3507 8587
      3500 8591 3488 8609 3498 8631 3506 8631
      3536 8608
TIME...MOT...LOC 1048Z 211DEG 72KT 3498 8617

KTW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
517 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

ALZ006-241215-
MADISON-
517 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 615 AM CST...

AT 516 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
SERIES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF MADISON COUNTY
AT 60 MPH.

ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN SINCE 3 AM AND
ANOTHER THREE QUARTERS TO 1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THIS COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  MADISON...HUNTSVILLE...NORMAL.
  MOORES MILL...MAYSVILLE.
  DEPOSIT...HAZEL GREEN.
  NEW MARKET...PLEVNA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 8676 3498 8675 3499 8653 3496 8635
      3475 8639 3455 8636 3453 8650 3461 8649
      3460 8663 3460 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 1111Z 212DEG 57KT 3461 8664

KTW

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