Tornado Warning 14, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN SET OF COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF HOUSTON AND MADISON
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WAS
GENERATING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF BOTH COUNTIES AT 09Z. THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE LOW SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AR/LA/TX BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

OF COURSE...THE MAIN WEATHER PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE POTENTIAL
FLOOD PROBLEM OVER THE NORTHERN SET OF COUNTIES. MODEL PW/S
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 2.25 INCHES TODAY. COUPLING THIS WITH THE LOW
BEING SO CLOSE...WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION
IN PLACE. EVEN IF THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST...BRAZOS...BURLESON...WASHINGTON...AND
GRIMES ALL RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES YESTERDAY OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EACH INDIVIDUAL COUNTY. GRIDDED 1-HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS UNDER 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THESE AND THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL RATES AT LEAST EQUALING THAT OVER THESE
COUNTIES TODAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AREA WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST MADISON...HOUSTON...
TRINITY...WALKER...POLK...AND SAN JACINTO COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY GET PICKED UP BY
THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES
SOMETIME TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. AS IT DOES...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BUILD INTO SE TX AND USHER IN A VERY
WARM PERIOD BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A
DRIER PERIOD WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER LOW. HAVE VCSH AND LOW MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS FOR THE KCLL/KUTS/KCXO TAFS. FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
HOUSTON AREA TERMINALS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE VCTS IN KIAH TAF AND CBS IN KHOU/KSGR TAFS 18Z
TODAY TO 01Z FRIDAY. CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS
COULD GENERATE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SE TX THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. SFC WINDS WILL BE TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING.

IMPORTANT NOTE...THE KLBX TAF WILL REMAIN NIL UNTIL THE ASOS IS
RESTORED. THE ESTIMATED TIME ASOS WILL BE RESTORED IS SOMETIME
DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE.

35
&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CAUTION FLAGS GOING FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS OF 15-20 KTS AND SEAS OF
4-6 FT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FLATTENS. MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WINDS OF 5-15 KTS AND SEAS DROPPING TO AROUND 2 FEET.

35

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      89  76  94  77  94 /  50  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  77  94  78  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  88  82  89 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...POLK...SAN
     JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...35

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
515 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2010

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>198-111300-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-
WALKER-WASHINGTON-
515 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING FLOODING RAINFALL
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION
TO LIVINGSTON. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO FLOOD OVER LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCED FLOODING
RAINFALL ON THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS GENERATING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO END LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED TODAY.

GMZ330-335-TXZ199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-111300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GALVESTON BAY-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-
MONTGOMERY-WALLER-WHARTON-
515 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GENERATING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG STORMS
GENERATING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

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