Tornado Warning 1, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
322 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...
AND WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED EVENT TOTALS OF WIDESPREAD 1
TO 2 INCHES AND ISOLATED 3 TO 4 INCHES (CLL IS ALREADY OVER 1.50 INCHES).
COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE ISOLATED AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.
LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND STILL EXPECT READINGS TO STEADILY FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY (HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING). GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT
TOTAL CLEARING UNTIL SOME TIME ON SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ON THE COOL/COLD SIDE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BEST SHOT OF RAIN COMING SOME TIME AROUND MIDWEEK.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010/

AVIATION...
OVERALL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER SE TX WITH MAINLY IFR
CIGS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR KGLS. THINK THE TAF PACKAGE IS ON
TRACK SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF
A NARROW SQUALL LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT. IN FACT...FRONT MAY BE
AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER THAN EXPECTED. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE
SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP THAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AROUND THE SFC LOW AND WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD
SLOWLY DROP OFF TOMORROW NIGHT.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      53  32  47  30  51 /  80  10  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  35  49  30  53 /  90  10  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  40  48  38  52 /  90  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA
     BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
342 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-301300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
342 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS FRONT...AND MOST
OF THAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED 3 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. ALL
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.