Wind Advisory 17, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST WED FEB 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE
ACROSS HAWAII NEI TODAY. THE WINDS WILL EASE OFF TONIGHT...BECOMING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE TRADES WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IS A PRELUDE TO A COLD FRONT
OR A SHEAR LINE THAT WILL DROP DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND USHER IN ANOTHER BATCH OF COOL NORTHERLY WINDS. A VERY
STABLE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RAINFALL ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF A DIFFUSE LOOKING FRONT OR SHEAR LINE IS NOW
OVER THE HAMAKUA COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. WEATHER RADAR IS NOT PAINT
MUCH OF ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS BAND. IF ANY...IT IS EITHER LIGHT
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND IS A LARGE FIELD OF
STABLE OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS /SC/. THESE CLOUDS WILL SETTLE
IN AND LINGER ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS INCLUDING THE
ADJACENT WINDWARD WATERS FOR A DAY OR TWO. THE LEEWARD SECTIONS WILL
SEE THE OVERCAST SKIES EARLY IN THE MORNING GIVING WAY TO SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

AS NOTED...THE AIR MASS IS VERY STABLE ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SC
CLOUDS.  ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES FROM COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT LANDING OR
TAKING OFF FROM AIRPORTS ACROSS THE STATE DEPICT A VERY STRONG
INVERSION BASE AT 4500 FEET OVER OAHU AND A CLOUD TOP OF NO HIGHER
THAN 7000 FEET. THUS ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT OR OF THE DRIZZLE
VARIETY.

IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...THE FRONT HAS BROUGHT WITH IT A COOL AND
BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND FLOW TO THE ISLANDS. IT IS FORECAST TO EASE
OFF LATER TONIGHT WHILE THE WIND DIRECTION TREND TO THE NORTHEAST.
PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND MAY EXPERIENCE SOME STRONG GUSTY PERIODS
LATER TODAY. BY THURSDAY...THE TRADES WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG...
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE BIG ISLAND WATERS. THE TRADES WILL GIVE WAY TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN NEXT
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHERE INITIAL...IT APPEARS TO BE A REPEAT OF THE
CURRENT FRONT OVER THE BIG ISLAND.

THE WINDS IS BEING SUPPLY BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED 1100
MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE HIGH IS SLATED TO WEAKEN WHILE PASSING
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH EXPECTED HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S. TONIGHT/S LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. WIND CHILL WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN MAKING ONE FEEL COLDER. THE TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT NIGHTS MAY STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY CHILLY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BUOY 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI HAS TRENDED UP SIGNIFICANTLY
WHERE ITS DATA PRETTY MUCH MATCHES UP TO WAVE WATCH. SO THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY IS ON. AFTER THIS SWELL...IS ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL
WITH A LONGER PERIOD. IT IS SLATED TO PEAK SUNDAY THUS MAINTAINING
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
A SMALL SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS MONDAY.

ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN WATERS WILL BE UNDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ TODAY. A SCALING DOWN OF THE AREAS UNDER THE SCA WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH THE MAUI LEEWARD WATERS DROPPING OUT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MAALAEA BAY AND THE BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS BY 6 AM
HST THURSDAY.

WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY THE SUMMIT WINDS INCLUDING HALEAKALA.
WIND SENSORS ARE INDICATING THE WINDS ARE BLOWING NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU...
KAUAI...OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI UNTIL 6
PM HST THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR THE MAUI LEEWARD WATERS AFTER 6 PM HST THIS EVENING.

&&

H LAU