Tornado Warning 1, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER
RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THEN CROSSES THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TORNADO WATCH #263 IN EFFECT TIL 02Z (10 PM) FOR ALL BUT OUR
EASTERNMOST ZONES.

THANKS TO STRONG DYNAMICS/ABUNDANT MOISTURE/AMPLE SURFACE HEATING
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING LIFT...CONVECTION FIRING UP OVER
WESTERN FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. PER SPC...INSTABILITY AND
40+ KT DEEP WLY SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/BRIEF
SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES.

EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS FOG OVERNIGHT. USED BLEND OF MAV/MET/CURRENT
FORECAST FOR TEMPS/DEWPS/WINDS AND BLEND OF MAV/CURRENT FORECAST
FOR POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. QUICK LOOK AT MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW WE COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
QPF OVER SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TO 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OVER
EASTERNMOST AREAS. LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SHOWS SLIGHT RISK
AREA JUST TOUCHING SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MAINE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO STEADY RAIN IN SOUTHERN ZONES.
EXPECT RAIN OR SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
ZONES IN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG IN FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ELSEWHERE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME FAIRLY GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME HIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE 60S TO MID 70S.

PARTIAL CLEARING ON TAP FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. JUST A CHANCE OF A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LINGERING TO KICK OFF SOME CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD SPILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PASSING OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
JUST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ON THURSDAY KEEPING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

WARM UP ON THE WAY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
TORNADO WATCH #263 IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM FOR ALL BUT EASTERNMOST
FORECAST AREA. QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION THROUGH
THIS EVENING... RANGING FROM PERIODS OF VFR THIS EVENING...LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT IN
SHOWERS/FOG. CONDITIONS REMAIN MVFR OR BELOW IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN IMPROVE MONDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN SUBSIDE MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
209 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

MEZ007-008-012-013-018>021-023>026-NHZ001>010-013-014-061815-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-COASTAL YORK-
COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
209 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

...TORNADO WATCH 263 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ152>154-061815-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
209 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

...TORNADO WATCH 263 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA AND THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME.

.DAY ONE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ150-151-MEZ009-014-022-027-028-061815-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR WALDO-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
209 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...PENOBSCOT BAY
AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
428 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

NHZ002-052100-
SOUTHERN COOS-
428 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COOS COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 429 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTH OF WHITEFIELD...OR ABOUT 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LANCASTER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND FOREST LAKE STATE
PARK...DALTON...WHITEFIELD...LANCASTER...JEFFERSON...YORK POND...
RANDOLPH...GORHAM...BERLIN AND MOOSE BROOK STATE PARK THROUGH 500 PM
EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4444 7166 4447 7166 4448 7164 4450 7159
      4452 7159 4453 7103 4431 7101 4433 7169
      4434 7169 4442 7169

KIMBLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
516 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

MEZ008-009-014-052145-
CENTRAL SOMERSET-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-
516 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOMERSET COUNTY AND FRANKLIN
COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 516 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF REDINGTON...OR
ABOUT 8 MILES EAST OF RANGELEY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND DALLAS...REDINGTON...
SALEM...CARRABASSETT VALLEY...KINGFIELD AND NEW PORTLAND THROUGH 545
PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4481 6993 4482 7003 4485 7002 4487 7004
      4486 7013 4484 7016 4488 7060 4506 7057
      4512 6993

KIMBLE