Storm Warning 4, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1134 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
FIRST OF TWO STORMS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TODAY AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT.  IN ITS WAKE...
A SECOND MID ATLANTIC STORM WILL MOVE TO A POSITION IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THURSDAY AS IT INTENSIFIES AND STALLS.
THE STALLED SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
FINALLY MOVING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. THE REGION REMAINS IN A BRISK
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING
LATER MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***UPDATED AT 1133 AM***

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR OXFORD COUNTY...AND TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE THE ISSUE
FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY. STILL RECEIVING REPORTS OF SNOW FOR
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE.

HAVE UPGRADED SOUTHERN OXFORD COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.
LOOKING AT THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HEADING NORTH INTO THE
COUNTY. SINCE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...THE DEEPER
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD ALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...BASED ON PRECIPITATION TRAJECTORY...WILL
LEAVE THE ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN SOMERSET
COUNTIES IN PLACE.

IN ADDITION...HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MAINE. THE 1200 UTC MODEL SUITE IS CONFIRMING THAT THESE AREAS
WILL SEE 50 TO 60 KNOTS OF WIND MIX UNDER THE INVERSION AHEAD OF
THE OCCLUSION. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BASED
ON FURTHER INFORMATION.

***PREVIOUS UPDATE***
THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

WATCHING THE PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH ACROSS MAINLY NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERNMOST MAINE THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS BEING FUNNELED
NORTH BEHIND A JET STREAK ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...AND THE
KGYX VWP SHOWS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY SO FAR THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MOISTURE HAS BEEN MAINLY LOW LEVEL. SINCE THE MOISTURE
HAS NOT BEEN AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SNOWFLAKES IN THE MID LEVELS...MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN LIGHT RAIN.
THE 1200 UTC GYX SOUNDING IS STILL MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING...AND
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION COULD STILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

WATCHING A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS MORNING...AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM STARTS TO FALL APART. THE DRY
SLOT WITH THIS SHORT WAVE IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. IT
COULD BE THAT AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES...THE DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS COULD CUT OFF SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION.

SO...FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. MAY BE
ABLE TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE IF THE ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE DOES NOT CREATE SNOW VS RAIN. OTHERWISE...MOST CHANGES
WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS. WILL UPDATE AGAIN LATER THIS
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TONIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THROUGH THEIR CURRENT 7 PM EXPIRATION TIME.
TEMPERATURES/WIND A BLEND OF MAV/MET/CURRENT FORECAST WITH POPS
BLEND OF MAV/CURRENT FORECAST. QPF/SNOWFALL WAS BASED ON HPC/PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL SUITE APPEARS TO BE VERY WELL CLUSTERED WITH ITS SOLUTION TO
THE FORECAST POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE BY FORECAST HOUR 48. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM
RETROGRADING WESTWARD TOWARDS POU.

TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A VERY UNUSUAL STORM TRACK WILL ALLOW FOR
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE MAY BE POWER
OUTAGES...ALONG WITH FRESH AND SALT WATER FLOODING.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PINWHEELS
AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM. WILL NEED TO WATCH WIND FIELDS
CLOSELY FRIDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT FRESH WATER RUNOFF...LARGE
WAVES AND A CONTINUED STORM SURGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ESTUARIES AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION (SEE
COASTAL FLOOD SECTION BELOW).

UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL
JUST HAVE NUISANCE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP ACCUMULATING SNOWS.

SYSTEM SLOWLY HEADS OUT TO SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
IFR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS OF MAINE. MVFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL MAINE...
LOWERING TO IFR CONDITIONS AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE...BUT TO ONLY IFR...FOR FRIDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENTS
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE IN ALL WATERS THIS
MORNING AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES HAS TIGHTENED. THIS
HAS ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST...AND SEAS
WERE INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO SLACKEN A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW WEAKENS. WILL WATCH TRENDS TO SEE IF WINDS CAN BE
LOWERED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT.

LONG TERM...
STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG SYSTEM RETROGRADES
BACK INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. STILL LATE THIRD PERIOD...AND THERE
IS AN ONGOING EVENT WHICH MAKES THINGS COMPLICATED. WILL HOLD OFF
ON STORM WARNINGS FOR NOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ018-
     019.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ018>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ006-008>010-013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ001>009.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     013.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ010-013-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

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