Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
536 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY...AND PRODUCE A COOLER AND DRIER DAY WITH A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. HUMIDITY BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN IN FRIDAY. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET
UP BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
---UPDATED---
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY THE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHERN MAINE. EXPECT THAT WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE THE COLUMN HAS NOT
BEEN WORKED OVER YET. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM
DIURNAL HEATING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS A BIT
TO BETTER REFLECT WHERE CONVECTION IS OCCURING. ANOTHER ISSUE THAT
POPPED UP WAS THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE FOG AND STRATUS CAME
ONSHORE. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL
AREAS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. ATTM...BEST ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING THROUGH NY STATE...AND WILL
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEREFORE EXPECT
STORMS TO INTENSIFY OVER NH AND EVENTUALLY WORK INTO ME. COLD AIR
ALOFT...AND WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TOT AP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WILL LKLY SEE CONVECTION
CONTINUE THRU THE 00Z WATCH EXPIRATION TIME...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
BEYOND THAT. EXPECTING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BEYOND THE STORMS AS
ACTUAL SFC FRONT WILL LAG A FEW HOURS BEHIND. WILL START TO SEE
SOME CLEARING IN WRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BREAK UPS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS NW
WINDS PICK UP AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25 MPH OR SO. SOME MTN
CLOUDS/SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND TERRAIN
INFLUENCES. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUNNY...DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE IN STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ALONG NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE NEW HAMPSHIRE SEACOAST.

CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS COULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS EXCEPT
FOR ABOVE NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT SCT TSRA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN
HEAVY RAIN AND BR...ENDING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
LOOK TO KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. VFR
RETURNS THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MOVE
BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTY AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/....WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...POHL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1144 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-221545-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
1144 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ150>154-221545-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
1144 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LIMERICK                43.69N 70.79W
07/21/2010                   YORK               ME   AIRPLANE PILOT

            YORK COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED 2 MILES OF DOWNED
            TREES ON FOSS ROAD AND RANGE E ROAD NEAR LIMERICK. TIME
            BASED ON RADAR.

&&

DAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
708 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE GROTON            43.69N 71.81W
07/21/2010                   GRAFTON            NH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED TREES DOWN CLOSING SEVERAL ROADS
            NEAR NEWFOUND LAKE IN NORTH HEBRON.

&&

DAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
720 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTH WINDHAM           43.74N 70.42W
07/21/2010                   CUMBERLAND         ME   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO REPORTED MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AND POWERLINES
            DOWN ON LIBBY AVE AND GRAY ROAD NEAR WINDHAM.

&&

DAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             HOLDERNESS              43.73N 71.59W
07/21/2010  E0.88 INCH       GRAFTON            NH   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN HOLDERNESS.

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N GORHAM              43.71N 70.44W
07/21/2010                   CUMBERLAND         ME   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE STREETS CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND
            POWERLINES. TIME BASED ON RADAR.

0614 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SANDWICH                43.79N 71.41W
07/21/2010                   CARROLL            NH   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS TREES DOWN ON VITTUM HILL ROAD IN
            SANDWICH.

0716 PM     HAIL             FALMOUTH                43.73N 70.24W
07/21/2010  E0.88 INCH       CUMBERLAND         ME   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN FALMOUTH.

&&

DAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
802 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DORCHESTER              43.76N 71.95W
07/21/2010                   GRAFTON            NH   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO REPORTED MULTIPLE TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN
            ON ROUTE 118 IN DORCHESTER. TIME ESTIMATED ON RADAR.

0604 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE GORHAM             43.70N 70.42W
07/21/2010                   CUMBERLAND         ME   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO REPORTED TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON WENTWORTH
            ROAD IN WINDHAM.

0730 PM     HAIL             SANFORD                 43.44N 70.77W
07/21/2010  E1.00 INCH       YORK               ME   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS 1 INCH HAIL IN SANFORD.

0800 PM     TSTM WND GST     CAPE ELIZABETH          43.56N 70.20W
07/21/2010  M64 MPH          CUMBERLAND         ME   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH IN CAPE ELIZABETH.

&&

DAG