Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH EVERY OTHER DAY DISTURBANCES EXPECTED. IT WILL ALSO KEEP THE WORST
OF THE HEAT/HUMIDITY SOUTH OF THE REGION. FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL
BE THE FRONT THAT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WITH A MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL WATCHING TSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NY STATE ATTM IN WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING THIS SCT CONVECTION TO MOVE
THRU THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVE. SO FAR...STORMS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ATTM...BUT
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLEARING OVER SRN NH AND EXPANDING
EWD...COULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY....AND ALLOW FOR POTENTIALLY
STRONG STORMS. TDS ALSO ON THEIR WAY UP...AND SHOULD TOP OUT AT
MID-UPPR 60S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORMS LOOK TO HAVE A
MORE SCT NATURE TO THEM....SO NOT EXPECTING EVERYBODY TO SEE ONE.

SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS REGION DURING THE EVENING...AND
TIMING OF FRONT...COMBINED WITH LACK OF WIND...SUGGEST THAT LOWER
TDS WILL NOT MIX DOWN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN UNTIL MIXING BEGINS
TUE MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECTING A MUGGY NIGHT WITH TDS STUCK IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS/FOOTHILL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN...AND EXPECTING MAINLY SOME SCT CU AND SOME CI
THRU THE DAY. COULD SEE SOME A FEW ISOL SHRA...OR PERHAPS TSTORM
FIRE UP IN THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN...COVERAGE
LOOKS VERY LIMITED. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT TDS. WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
SHOULD SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP IN THE COASTAL ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES REGION LATER TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS
EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO LAST WEEKS HOT
REGIME. HUMIDITY...THOUGH NOTICEABLE...WON'T BE QUITE AS STICKY
AS LAST WEEK WITH DAILY DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. DEW POINTS DROPS BACK
TO AROUND 60 LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AT WHICH POINT HUMIDITY
WILL BE NOTICEABLY IMPROVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT CONVECTION LOOKS TO MOVE FROM W-E THRU THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-24Z. COULD SEE HALF AN HOUR OF MAINLY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. FOG REMAINS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KLEB/KCON...WITH
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT KAUG/KPWM/KPSM. VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY TUE.

LONG TERM...
AREAS MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR
IN ANY PATCHY FOG. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR ANY LOCAL
MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATER THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...LOWERING TO MVFR LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/PATCHY FOG.
&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS THROUGH TUE. SCT TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS EARLY THIS EVE. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/
MARINE...CEMPA/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-200715-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
308 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE IMPACTED ARE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANZ150>154-200715-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
308 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
617 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

NHZ007-008-192300-
MERRIMACK-SULLIVAN-
617 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SULLIVAN COUNTY AND MERRIMACK
COUNTY THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 617 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER CLAREMONT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND CLAREMONT...
CROYDON...NEWPORT...GOSHEN...MOUNT SUNAPEE STATE PARK...JOHN HAY
NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...SUNAPEE...NEWBURY...NEW LONDON AND SUTTON
THROUGH 700 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35
TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4348 7169 4324 7182 4332 7241 4348 7236

MC