Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
945 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND TORRENTIAL
RAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY EVENING, WITH A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT... AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON ON TUESDAY AND INCREASES TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LATER
THURSDAY. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAYS
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND CRESTS
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON THE MODIFIED MORNING RAOBS AT KALB AND KGYX AND THE LARGE
UPSTREAM BREAKS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. CAPES SHOULD APPROACH 2000 J/KG AND I EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG STORMS WAS ADDED TO THE MORNING
UPDATE PACKAGE FOR WIND...HAIL...AND LIGHTNING.

PREV DISC...
WEAK 500MB TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...IS SHOWING
SOME MODERATE LOW-MID THERMAL FORCING OUT AHEAD OF IT EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AS THE BEST MID LVL THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS TO THE N AND
E. SHOULD SEE ANY CONVECTION IN THE SRN ZONES DIMINISH DURING THE
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING....WHERE TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. IN THE N...SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASES CHC OF SHRA...AND SOME SCT TSRA
MIDDAY TO MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN AT LEAST SOME SUN IN THE
SOUTH...INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER FUELED CONVECTION...AND
A GREATER THREAT FOR THAT ANY TSRA THAT DO DEVELOP BEST CHC FOR
STORMS IN THIS AREA WOULD BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THINKING HEAVY
RAINS IN THIS A GOOD BET FROM SOME STORMS...AND MAYBE SOME
ISOLATED STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE ERN ZONES JUST BEFORE SUNSET...AND THEN
SHOULD START TO SEE THINGS CLEAR OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THEN. TIMING
OF FROPA MAY BE SUCH THAT ITS TOO LATE FOR IT TO MIX TO THE
GROUND...AND LOW LVL MOISTURE LINGERS INTO THE NIGHT...IN WHICH
CASE IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING. IF A SEA BREEZE CAN OVERCOME THE GRADIENT...LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES. AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME
5 DEGREES OR COOLER ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
THERE LOOKS TO BE BETTER CHANCE OF AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL COMPLEX APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. HIGHER
HUMIDITY EXPECTED AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SKIES CLEAR AGAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL AND
DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOOKS LIKE WE/LL MAINLY SEE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN ANY TSRA TODAY. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT
FOR CHANCE OF SCA CRITERIA FOR SEAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. &&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
307 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-210715-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
307 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ150>154-210715-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
307 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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