Wind Advisory 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

294 
WWUS72 KGSP 170305
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1005 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2010

...GUSTY WINDS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-171115-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.100117T0500Z-100117T1300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
1005 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

A WIND ADVISORY ABOVE 3500 FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500
FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

14

147 
WWUS72 KGSP 170914
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

...GUSTY WINDS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-171300-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-100117T1300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
414 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

A WIND ADVISORY ABOVE 3500 FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST
THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500
FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1224 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY...AND THEN
CONTINUE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE
NEXT LOW CROSSES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE N AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. BASED ON
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE ICNRSD CLOUD COVER
ACROSS CWA AND BUMPED POPS UP EARLIER...ESP ALONG S TIER. TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND TWEAKED THEM UP A DEG OR SO AS WELL. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ARE GENERATING NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS EARLY HOUR. AS THE LOW ORGANIZES AND PULLS
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST IT IS EXPECTED TO SEND MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE NEAR TERM IS THE TIMING OF
THE ONSET AS THERE REMAINS TROUBLING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GUIDANCE.
THE GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE IN TERMS OF WHEN
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL ARRIVE...SO THE FORECAST WAS FINE TUNED WITH A
HIGH DOSE OF ECMWF AND SREF. THIS SCENARIO WOULD HAVE PRECIP
DEVELOPING SW TO NE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TRENDS
TO OUR SW WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE FASTER GFS IS ACTUALLY
RIGHT. AT LEAST PRECIP TYPE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE. THE
SECOND CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAIN. THE QPF IS IN THE
ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 2.5 INCHES NEAR THE SC/NC
BORDER. FORTUNATELY... THE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...WHICH WILL
HOPEFULLY PRECLUDE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO SOME
CONCERN ABOUT CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST NOT PERMITTING AS MUCH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AT ANY RATE...A WATCH IS NOT PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL BE CONSIDERED LATER. AS FOR TEMPS...MADE VERY FEW
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER FORCING
WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY
MORNING...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...WHILE THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL EXIST IN THE MORNING...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. IN FACT...SOME WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP BENEATH THE COLD CORE UPPER
LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TS
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LARGELY HINGE ON HOW MUCH...IF ANY
SUN IS SEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HUGE DISCREPANCY (10-12
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA) BETWEEN MAV AND MET
MOS FOR SUNDAY MAX TEMPS. THE TEMP FORECAST IS NO DOUBT QUITE
TRICKY...AS THICKNESS VALUES WILL BEGIN THE DAY VERY HIGH...BEFORE
TUMBLING DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LOW. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER FURTHER COMPLICATES
MATTERS. WILL JUST HEDGE OUR BETS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR
NOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MTNS SUN EVENING WITHIN
DEFORMATION ZONE/NW FLOW REGIME. THERMAL PROFILES MAY BECOME BRIEFLY
FAVORABLE FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN WRAP UP MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES RESPONDING TO DEPARTING
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO A VERY WARM MON AFTERNOON...WITH MAXES
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A SOLID 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON VARYING DEGREES OF AN UPPER RIDGE
FOR TUESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE GFS HAVING THE MOST
AMPLIFICATION.  THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NORTHEAST
OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST FROM
OUR AREA BUT THE SOUTHERN SECTOR WOULD AT LEAST REACH NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME.  THE GFS AND ECMWF
TAKE A SYSTEM FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN MID WEEK TO
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE PRODUCING QPF VALUES OF AT LEAST AN
INCH LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.  LOOKS LIKE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP INTO FRIDAY AND THEN A DRYING TREND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.  IT NOW APPEARS THAT A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR NEW YORK STATE WILL GIVE A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW TO
START NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.  THE GEM SOLUTION MORE CLOSELY MATCHED
THE ECMWF WITH A MORE DEFINED LOW MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE GEM
ENDS AT THAT POINT SO CANNOT SEE THAT WEEKEND FROM GEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CIG/VSBY WILL DECREASE AS SYSTEM MOVES IN
LATE THIS AFTN-EVE. EXPECT MVFR CIG/VSBY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CWA WITH
RAIN THIS EVE...LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES FROM THE NE AFTER MIDNIGHT...SE AT KAVL. EXPECT LIFR LATE
NIGHT THRU EARLY MRNG HOURS WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM THE SW AS
DRYER AIR WORKS IN. WINDS WILL SWING SE-S. EXPECT SCT SHWRS LATE
MRNG-AFTN. AN ISOLD TSTM WILL BE PSBL KAND-KCLT BUT CHC TOO LOW TO
MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT SCT SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DRYING EXPECTED
MON-WED MORNING...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE W
LATE WED-THU.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/RB
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2010

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-171115-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
602 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH UP TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. ALTHOUGH LESS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...INCREASED RUNOFF
COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT OCCURS. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET. SUSTAINED
IND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-171115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
602 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH UP TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LANE