Tornado Warning 14, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
752 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.  DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN...BUILD INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W. MODELS CONT TO SHOW CAPE OF
400-600 J/KG MOVG IN FROM THE S THIS AFTN WITH PVA...Q FORCING...
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALL COMING TOGETHER OVER THE
AREA. SATELLITE LOOPS ARE SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MOVG IN
FROM THE SW SO IF AREA DESTABILIZES ENOUGH EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. SPC HAS GA AND THE CAROLINAS IN AN AREA OF
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTN-EVE. ANY STRONG
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE W LATE THIS
EVE WITH COOLING BUT SHWRS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MTNS AND E CWA. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER. UPPER LOW MOVES OVER AREA DURING THE DAY MON AND ENOUGH
FORCING AND LL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR CHC SHWRS THRU THE DAY...ESP
OVER THE MTNS AND E ZONES. HI TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NC MONDAY EVENING
WILL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
CROSS THE MS RIVER ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TN AND OH RIVER
VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY
NIGHT AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE TN
BORDER. FREEZING LEVELS DROP BELOW THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS BY DAWN TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER NOT
VERY COLD...ICE NUCLEATION IS NOT A SURE THING.

DRYING OCCURS LATE TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY THE  PRESSURE
GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FORM THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWNWARD FROM NEAR NORMAL...AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UPWARD
FROM NEAR NORMAL...AS DRIER AIR ALLOWS FOR A GREATER DIURNAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS PM 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF WAS
PREFERRED BY HPC OVER THE FASTER GFS. A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN USA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...SUPPORTING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER LINE OF TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
0030Z AND 0200Z. IFR RESTRICTIONS...VARIABLE GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. BEFORE THE LINE HITS...STRONG SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WITH VFR CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE LINE...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NWLY...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON WHAT VSBY AND CIGS WILL DO...AS BL WILL BE MOIST AND WNDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT. CONDITIONS SHUD IMPROVE MON AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...AS OF 2345Z...LINE OF STORMS FROM KHKY...TO JUST EAST OF
KGSP/KGMU AND MOVING EWD. BEHIND THIS LINE...EXPECT PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN AND LOW CIGS...AND NWLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE...AND SHWR COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
LGT WNDS MAY RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS IN BR AND LOW CIGS. THE EXACT
EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. CONDITIONS
SHUD IMPROVE MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...VFR TUE-FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
643 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-291045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
643 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. BY THE TIME
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SURROUNDING
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT
TO ALLOW THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT ISOLATED
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ACROSS
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LANE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
832 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE BLACKSBURG         35.09N 81.48W
03/28/2010                   CHEROKEE           SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES KNOCKED DOWN

&&

ASTUREY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
833 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     HAIL             3 W BLACKSBURG          35.12N 81.57W
03/28/2010  E1.00 INCH       CHEROKEE           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT THE 96 MILE MARKER ON
            INTERSTATE 85 WHICH IS NEAR BLACKSBURG.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
834 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TORNADO          CROWDERS                35.19N 81.21W
03/28/2010                   GASTON             NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED NEAR CROWDERS MOUNTAIN.

&&

ASTUREY