Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCATTTERED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO FIRE BY 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON...AS LAPS CAPES POOLING IN PLACES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J.
HRRR CONTINUES TO CONFINE CONVECTION TO MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND
WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. CAPES OUTSIDE OF
MOUNTAINS ALSO ARE HIGH...BUT THERE IS NO APPARENT TRIGGERING
MECHANISM AS THOSE AREAS ARE ACTUALLY IN WEAK NVA. EXPECT MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION TO WANE RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSE. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND
HRRR SHOW CONVECTION POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT FROM THE N EARLY THIS EVENING AS WEAK BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTHWARD...SO WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THERE TIL ABOUT 04Z
OR SO THERE. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR AND QUITE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT 50S
MOUNTAINS.

ON FRI...WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUDNERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS BY
MIDDAY...GRADUALLY PROPOGATING INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...BUT
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...A COUPLE WET MICROBURSTS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EVOLVING COLD POOLS. WITH WEAK STEERING
FLOW AND PRECIP WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES IN THE
COLUMN...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY...BUT COVERAGE WILL
NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. USED A MOS BLEND
FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI...FAVORED THE WARMER MAV
NUMBERS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME INSOLATION AND DELAYED MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR 90.

MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF INTIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 18Z-19Z TIMEFRAME THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO CONFINE COVERAGE TO ESSENTIALLY THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW
TODAY...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL ADJUST THE POP FIELD FOR TIMING
AND BUMP VALUES UPWARD IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY LOWER A BIT IN
THE PIEDMONT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INHIBITION AND LOWER CAPES
THERE. WILL QUICKLY LOWER POPS AFTER SUNSET. AFTER 03Z EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

A HOT AFTERNOON IS IN STORE AND CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH LOW
90S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. A WARM
NIGHT IS ALSO IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S TO AROUND 60 MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THU...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD FROM THE
NRN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE A WEAK COMPACT UPPER
LOW WANDERS INVOF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. HEIGHTS WILL
RISE ALOFT OVER THE FA...AND OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. AT THE
SFC...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL INVOF THE I-77 CORRIDOR FROM
WRN VA THRU THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH SOUTHERN EDGE OF BNDRY PUSHING
INTO ERN SC. TO OUR WEST...AN INVERTED TROF/WK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT TN/AL/GA AND ACRS FL. BOTH OF
THESE SFC FEATURES WILL BE FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION...AS BL MOISTURE
POOLS ALONG THE BNDRYS (THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL MTN-VLY
CIRCULATION). WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID LVL
LAPSE RATES...MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY AGREEING ON LOCATION AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS HAVE BULLS EYES IN QPF IN VARIOUS SPOTS...WITH THE NAM SHOWING
RESPONSE IN THE UPPER LEVELS (UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VORT MAX). SO I
HAVE TAKEN A MODEL BLEND ON POPS AND TRIED TO KEEP IT MORE OF A
BROAD-BRUSH. THE BEST CHC WILL BE FRIDAY EVE...THEN TAPER TO MORE OF
A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CHC POP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION LOOKS TO SHIFT WEST AS UPPER LOW RETROGRADES AND HEIGHTS
RISE ON SUNDAY...WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POP FOR THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
FA. (BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE ON DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE FA
FROM THE EAST.)

TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS...THEN ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER ON
SUNDAY WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND MORE INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST BEGINS AT 00Z ON MON
WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVING THRU SOUTHERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE FCST AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN GIVES WAY TO A
HEALTHY LOOKING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
ON TUES. LINGERING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
UNTIL THE FROPA...AFTER WHICH TIME WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL FILL IN ON
WED. WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON
MON...TUES...AND WED AFTERNOON/EVENING THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SH
AND TS ARE GOOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

TEMPS WERE LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
MIN VALUES IN THE MID 60S OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A VFR FORECAST WITH JUST SOME SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH MAINLY CI OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY
OVER HIGH TERRAIN TO NW. LIGHT NE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SE
FRI MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW MVFR FOG AT KAVL LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL CARRY A CB CLOUD GROUP AT KAVL 21Z-00Z. EXPECT
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO BEGIN BY MIDDAY FRI...SO WILL CARRY A CB
CLOUD GROUP AT KAVL AT 17Z.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WHICH WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH CEILING/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SAT AND WITH A MOIST UPGLIDE FLOW EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN EITHER SHOWERS/STRATUS/FOG WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...LG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

GAZ010-NCZ062-272015-
MACON-RABUN-
329 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN RABUN AND SOUTHERN
MACON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 325 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OTTO...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF
FRANKLIN. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN RABUN AND SOUTHERN MACON COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

DILLARD AND OTTO...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3494 8359 3495 8356 3499 8356 3500 8352
      3504 8356 3504 8355 3513 8332 3500 8324
      3484 8349 3491 8360

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