Severe Thunderstorm Warning 467, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
816 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE UPDATED GRID FIELDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND TRENDS. AT
00Z...COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER SW VA...S THROUGH
WESTERN NC/SC AND NE GA. 21Z LOCAL WRF LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON FRONTAL POSITION AND MOVES IT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND FINALLY EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 06Z.
PREFRONTAL BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD TYHRIOUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A ONE/TWO PUNCH OF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND/OR WIND DAMAGE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE POST FRONTAL PRECIP AT THE
MOMENT...EXPECT DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO END ALL
AREAS...EXCEPT UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS BY 12Z. USING 18Z NAM
THICKNESS FIELDS ETC...STILL PRODUCES SOME POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA IS
SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...SHARP
COLD ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT WILL LOWER TEMPS CONSIDERABLY...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NC/SC AND NE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z
THURSDAY. COOL LLVL THICKNESSES...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL SUPPORT MIN TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. I WILL
FORECAST UPPER TEENS TO L20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID 20S EAST. AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING THICKNESSES TO
RISE. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. I WILL INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY WARM AFTER SUNRISE...BUT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY MORNING...MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH SLOW CAA. USING A BLEND OF MIN MOS...I
WILL INDICATE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
NEAR 30 ACROSS FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...THE MID
LEVEL TROF WILL RIPPLE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...EXTENDED RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND AS A L/W RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
CENTERED ON A DIGGING S/W ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAIN THE QUICKER
SOLUTION...INDICATING THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W MON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE 12Z ECMWF DROPS THE S/W ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUESTIONABLY TIMED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THE 0Z ECMWF. I WILL FAVOR THE 12Z
ECMWF...BUT WILL BLEND WITH THE 12Z GFS. OVERALL...I WILL KEEP THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUN. ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL STREAM ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION. GIVEN
DEEP MOISTURE AND WEST FLOW I WILL INCREASE POPS TO SCHC ACROSS THE
REGION...FAVORING THE MTNS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATE THROUGH ABOUT
05Z...ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPO VFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT LINE OF
HEAVY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUDNERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AIRFIELD IN
THE 03Z-05Z TIMEFRAME WITH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 30KT FROM THE
SW. CEILINGS IMPROVE TO MVFR AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 06Z AND THEN VFR BY 12Z. GUSTY W-NW WINDS EXPECTED ON WED.

ELSEWHERE...LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 04Z. SW WIND GUSTS >30KT
POSSIBLE. AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY MVFR 04Z-09Z
AND THEN VFR AFTER 12Z. GUSTY W WINDS EXPECTED ON WED.

OUTLOOK...DRYING WED...HIGH PRES THU-SAT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ035>037-056-
     057-069>072-082.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ001-002-004-
     005.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ009.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ501>510-SCZ001-002-004-005-011945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
244 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 759 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-011945-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
244 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

WIDESPREAD...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AND GUSTY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN INTO TONIGHT. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ068-SCZ003-006>008-010>014-019-011945-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CLEVELAND-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
244 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...TORNADO WATCH 759 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-SCZ009-011945-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-
244 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...TORNADO WATCH 759 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ064-065-SCZ001>005-010-302345-
ANDERSON-ELBERT-FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE
MOUNTAINS-HART-HENDERSON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS
MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
602 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN FRANKLIN...EASTERN
OCONEE...HART...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE...PICKENS...SOUTHERN
TRANSYLVANIA...WESTERN ANDERSON...WESTERN ELBERT AND WESTERN
HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EST...

AT 558 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAKE JOCASSEE TO 5
MILES NORTH OF SENECA TO 3 MILES WEST OF FAIR PLAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN FRANKLIN...EASTERN OCONEE...HART...NORTHWESTERN
GREENVILLE...PICKENS...SOUTHERN TRANSYLVANIA...WESTERN ANDERSON...
WESTERN ELBERT AND WESTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

LAKE JOCASSEE...SENECA...LAKE KEOWEE...SALEM...FAIR PLAY...NINE
TIMES...ROCKY BOTTOM...ROSMAN...CLEMSON AND SANDY SPRINGS...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3401 8294 3417 8311 3422 8309 3425 8310
      3426 8313 3423 8319 3426 8321 3471 8300
      3506 8300 3541 8249 3507 8249 3498 8250
      3497 8254 3493 8251 3455 8258

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

NCZ053-064-065-507-509-510-SCZ002-003-005-006-010100-
BUNCOMBE-EASTERN POLK-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE
MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD
MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
700 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN PICKENS...EASTERN
TRANSYLVANIA...HENDERSON...NORTHERN GREENVILLE...SOUTHEASTERN
BUNCOMBE...WESTERN POLK AND WESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 800
PM EST...

AT 657 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ETOWAH TO 4 MILES
NORTHEAST OF PUMPKINTOWN TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF LIBERTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN PICKENS...EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...HENDERSON...
NORTHERN GREENVILLE...SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE...WESTERN POLK AND
WESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

ETOWAH...CAESARS HEAD...JONES GAP STATE PARK...EASLEY...MOUNTAIN
HOME...FLETCHER...MARIETTA...HENDERSONVILLE...FLAT ROCK AND
FAIRVIEW...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3560 8227 3559 8229 3556 8226 3550 8212
      3546 8213 3539 8220 3540 8216 3520 8220
      3519 8222 3495 8223 3481 8248 3472 8268
      3536 8267 3556 8263 3564 8233

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BREVARD                 35.24N 82.73W
11/30/2010                   TRANSYLVANIA       NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            THE COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS CENTER REPORTS THAT 40 TO 50
            ROADS ARE NOW FLOODED IN THE COUNTY. SOME AFFECTED ROADS
            INCLUDE DAVIDSON RIVER...HART...WILSON...CASHERS VALLEY
            AND TINSLEY. EVACUATIONS ARE BEING UNDERTAKEN IN PARTS OF
            THE COUNTY.

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
810 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW EASLEY             34.80N 82.61W
11/30/2010                   PICKENS            SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS BLACK SNAKE ROAD IN
            SEVERAL AREAS...BUT THE WORST ABOUT A FOOT DEEP BETWEEN
            HIGHWAY 93 AND LENA DRIVE.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
819 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EASLEY                  34.82N 82.59W
11/30/2010                   PICKENS            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN EASLEY AND DAMAGE TO LIGHTS IN
            DOWNTOWN EASLEY.

&&

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
822 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EASLEY                  34.82N 82.59W
11/30/2010                   PICKENS            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE IN EASLEY. PICKENS COUNTY
            RECEIVED REPORTS OF POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ON
            LENDHEART RD AND ON C STREET NEAR DOWNTOWN EASLEY.

&&

JPT