Severe Thunderstorm Warning 459, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
649 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS TENNESSEE THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN UNTIL A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REACHES OUR AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND COLD
FRONT ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA ATTM. LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE MTNS. HOWEVER...SRN END OF
THE LINE WILL MOVE INTO BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO BE COINCIDENT WITH
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...ISOLATED QLCS WIND
DAMAGE AND A TORNADO COULD STILL DEVELOP AS THIS LINE MOVES THRU.
GUSTY WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL DIMINISH WITH FROPA. HOWEVER...
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE MTN RIDGES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT
DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE NW. NAM HAS H85 WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING
50 KTS WHILE THE GFS HAS 40 OR LESS. EITHER WAY...THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. SINCE BEST WIND WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE RIDGES...WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADV ATTM...BUT KEEP MENTION IN THE
HWO. PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU AS
WILL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SCT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE...NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW
AND WEAK CAA. H85 TEMPS COOL BELOW ZERO...SO SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS EXPECTED.
LOWS STILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY END ACROSS THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES EARLY WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPE...SO WITH NEARLY
FULL SUN...HIGHS WILL END UP NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK THRU
THE CWA THURSDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EXITING THE
EAST COAST BY THU EVE. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACRS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CONUS FRI.

THE 12Z NAM IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE CLIPPER SFC
LOW...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE ON THE FAST END OF GUIDANCE. THE
ECMWF AND SREF SEEM TO AGREE MORE WITH THE NAM ON TIMING...SO THE
NAM WAS WEIGHTED A LITTLE MORE HEAVILY IN THE GRIDS. IN ANY
CASE...GUIDANCE AGREES ON A VERY BRIEF SHOT OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FORCING ON THU. THE STRONG MID-UPR QG FORCING DOES NOT
COUPLE WITH THE LLVL MOISTURE/LIFT. SO I WILL KEEP THE POP AT SLGT
CHC ALONG TN/NC BORDER (DELAYING TIMING TO MIDDAY THU INTO THU EVE).
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST SNDGS AGREE ON MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...SO CLOUD COVER WAS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY THU.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THU...AND ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER FRI
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING IN THE MTN VLYS
TO LWR 40S INVOF THERMAL BELT WED NGT AND THU NGT. THESE TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW (WITH ANY SHWR ACTIVITY THAT MAY
DEVELOP). HOWEVER...A FEW FLAKES MAY FALL NEAR RIDGETOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES IN THE EXT
RANGE BTW THE OP MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS ENS MEMBERS. VERY LITTLE
SPREAD IS SEEN IN THE GEFS WRT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE SCALE 588
DM HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN GOM BY LATE SAT. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN
PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND SLOWLY SWING A DECENT
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWFA SUN THROUGH MON. THIS WILL ENABLE A
REINFORCING SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND KEEP THE FCST
DRY. BY EARLY TUE...THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS SOME
MEASURE OF MOIST GOM RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. NO QPF RESPONSE
IS SEEN IN EITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF BUT STEEPENING ISENTROPIC
SURFACES SHOULD BECOME QUITE SATURATED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
UPSLOPE REGIONS. THEREFORE...SLT CHANCE -SHRA HAS BEEN ADDED TO NEW
DAY 7 ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE FA. A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP SUBSIDENCE ALLOWS PLENTY OF
INSOLATION WHILE LLVL FLOW REMAIN SLY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
OR A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SAT...REACHING ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MINS WILL BEGIN AROUND NORMAL AS WELL...BUT
INCREASE ONLY BY 2-3 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...A
MORE ROBUST LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TS WILL APPROACH THE AIRFIELD
BY AROUND 02Z...AND TEMPOS FOR MVFR VISBY AND A CB HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP SHOWER CHANCES/MVFR CIGS EAST
OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STOUT OUT OF THE
SOUTH EARLY...BUT GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SW AND W/SW AS THE FRONT
PASSES. AFTER SUNRISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND W/NW OF AROUND 10 KT
ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR NO LATER THAN 03Z. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND VCSH/CB WILL BE MENTIONED AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
02-03Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY IN THE 04-06Z
TIME FRAME...WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST OR W/NW BY SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER WHERE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-172030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
326 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-172030-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
326 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN PORTIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT RIDGETOPS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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